blackdog's Poker Blog

... and all the chips roll down to me.

My last poker session at Vegas was preceded by two 'two finger' scotch-on-the-rocks, a bottle of wine with dinner, and then, demonstrating my still sound judgment, an 'espresso martini' (4oz of Vodka, a shot of espresso, a shot of creme de cao and a shot of kaluha).

Buzzzz. My brain was firing on all 19 of its four cylinders.

In my defense, I have to say that it was not my intention to actually play poker after dinner, but the card room was on my path back to my room, and, well, there was a seat free, and, one thing just lead to another I guess.

With the great dexterity bestowed upon me by my consumed beverages, I managed to spill my chips as I assumed my seat. 'Better play tight' I thought 'I might not be at my sharpest at the moment'.

Second hand was A K. I'm in late position, one raiser to $6, one caller. I raise to $25. All fold. Nice one.

Two hands later, Q Q. 2 limps from early position, I raise to $10, not wanting to scare away too much action. One caller from late position, the BB calls and one of the limpers call. A little too much action for my liking for pocket queens, but never mind.

There is an ace on the flop, it's checked to me, and I figure $30 is going to let me know if one of those hit. The BB calls, everyone else folds. Ah well, those queens looked good while it lasted.

The river is some blank, but makes a three flush on the board, and yes, I see now a straight for a 10, 8 holding.

The BB checks, trapping no doubt, but my limbic brain has already decided to bet and before I can stop them, $100 of mine goes into the pot. At which point, the BB with top pair, and no doubt a pretty good kicker, promptly... folds. huh?

My limbic brain had obviously seen something I didn't.

Anyway, I flashed my queens to the player as I mucked them, causing one or two people at the table to say 'Show one show all'.

"Oh come on" I said "Who's the rules lawyer here?"

"We all are" someone else commented

"Ok, turn them over" I said to the dealer, indicating my mucked cards

"No, you have to do that" the dealer told me.

So I did, it wasn't really a problem, but, of course, my conscious brain, just now catching up, wasn't about to let it go at that.

"Oh yes, you don't want these Aussies coming over here and bluffing you out of your money" I said to no one in particular as I turned the cards face up "Better see what cards they were holding, even though you weren't even in the hand"

'Murmer murmer' whet the table

Next hand I played was UTG, 4 7 off looked good, so I lead out with $12. And picked up the blinds.

In the BB next, the button raised to $6 (standard for the table). I make it $18 and get a sheepish fold. I know I had some cards, I probably did look at them at the time, but they were not that memorable so I can't tell you what they were now.

I fold the SB to a legitimate looking raise, and then from the button 3-bet a raise to my right and make it $18 again with A 10. The BB calls, a crusty looking 'old timer' who's mule was probably tied to the hitching rail outside (no joke, this guy looked like a stereotype of a 'Californ-i-a' old west prospector). The initial raiser gets out of the way and folds.

The flop is all low and two clubs, which do nothing for my two hearts. The prospector bets $20 and I call (I have no idea what he has, but all parts of my brain agree, I wont be bluffed).

Turn is something low again. He makes it $40 and I call. The river is a jack, no help to me. Prospector makes another $40 bet. I figure his previously tight play and now call, bet, bet, bet just has to be a bluff and my ace high could be good.

"Ok, I guess I am going to pay you off" I say, calling.

As it turned out, I had made a wheel straight on the turn and won the pot.

Fortunately, a benefit of the alcohol was to buffer the total embarrassment and astoundingly poor manners of both missing my hand and so rudely making a slow roll statement about paying off, so I almost didn't feel anything. To his great credit, the only emotion the prospector showed was a slightly more rigid set to his permanent grimace.

But that was all in the past now, and another two cards were in front of me.

However, the die were cast, there was no going back. The table had me pegged as an audacious, maniac, aggressive player, and I wasn't going to let my countrymen, Jeff Lisandro, Tony G and even Joe Hachem (I fantasized) down.

By forth street again I find myself with ace high, except I am the one betting each street this time. It dawns on my that the most likely holding my opponent has is top trips - the very hand I have been trying to represent. The river brings a blank, but makes a three flush. 'Ah Ha!' I decide, I will now represent a flush. I have the other guy well covered, the pot is about $120 and I announce 'all in', meaning my opponent needs to put in his last $80.

He folds. Well.... I am sort of coming to expect that by now.

So sure am I that he had trips, I make the smart-arse comment "Mate, in Australia we don't usually fold trips to a bluff" and show my ace high. It works, and he turns over his pocket kings, for, indeed, top trips.

A few hands later I am pulling in chips again and make a comment (to the increasing grumblings at the table ranging from 'ass-hole' to 'can't get all the luck, the ass-hole etc) something like "I don't know how you guys play here, but in Australia, we actually try to win money when we play".

Well, that did it. I could feel the enmity from the whole table now. Every hand, whether I raised or limped pre flop, there would be five or six of them right there, trying to out draw me and teach that 'Aussie ass-hole' a lesson.

Six callers pre flop. Six folders to bets on the flop and turn.

It helped a lot that in two hands that went to show down I had trips and then a straight, taking out large chunks of the stacks of two or three brave enough to stay in. The tight passive table, that seem common in Vegas, and so exploitable, had now become a loose passive table with, fortunately, no need to exploit, as they did all the exploiting to themselves for me.

I noticed how in the pots I wasn't in, the guys who won were only tipping $1, even though sometimes the pots were quite large. I made a point of telling the dealer that even though our exchange rate was really bad, hell, if you can afford to come to Vegas, the least you could do was tip the dealers a reasonable amount. Then, every $1 tip another player made, I would tip $2 on top.

More tilt. More chips to me. What a great game. But all good things must come to an end, and by about 1am the effects of the caffeine were wearing off and the alcohol was setting in. The sigh of relief from the table was audible as I loaded my chips into a tray to cash out. Buy in $100, cash out $450. Viva, Las Vegas indeed.

... my kind of town. If you can make it anywhere, you can make it there. (apologies to Cahn and Van Heusen, and Kander and Ebb).

I can well understand why pro poker players end up in Las Vegas. I don't know how the games stack up at higher stakes, but one would have to assume that the tables at any stake level are indicative of any other. And so at low stakes, $1/2, $2/3 and $2/5, I can tell you, the games are as soft and good as I can imagine.

My recent visit - played six sessions, mostly $1/2, over three nights. usually one session after the 'work' day on the way back from the convention I was attending at the Mandalay Bay, then dinner, than another session after that, each once averaging about 2-3 hours.

Apart from the first session where I cleverly managed to get it all in pre flop with pocket Kings against Aces, each one I at least doubled up on my $200-$300 buy in. Total winnings for the trip was $1,200. I mean, that's a win rate of $100 per hour (after the rake and tips). How can it get any better than that?

Now, please don't think that I am implying I am some great player or that I ascended to poker god-hood on my flight across the Pacific. I know and will readily admit that my game has many flaws and leaks. But I do know I an a regular winner in Aus casinos at the $1/2 level, averaging about $25 per hour over the last year.

What I am saying, is just how much better/softer the Vegas games are. If I can make $100 per hour, what could a good player do? (well I know, because I ran into one or two at different times at my table, and their chip stacks where much bigger than mine).

As i said to the players at our regular home game - anyone from this table could make a killing in Vegas.

What makes it so good? I don't know (apologies to Pete Townshend), but here is a list of the a-typical Vegas low stakes player characteristics:

- tight passive
- level 0 thinkers
- scared money (I know, I know, $200, sheesh, but that is what I saw)
- easy to tilt, at which point they become
- loose passive

Maybe it is just because the $1/2 games are so low stakes (but that was all the casino's were spreading), that no one 'good' plays in them. I am sure that the $5/10 games would be much tougher, but then you would expect a whole better calibre of pro to be playing them to match the higher 'tourist' skill level.

So can it really be that at $5/10 it is possible to make upwards of $500 per hour (if the $1/2 experience scales)?

it is certainly food for thought. A good way to fund a very, very, nice holiday if it does and I can improve my game to that level.

... with (insert suitably weak hand like ace high or pocket eights). Is something I hear people say to me a fair bit at the poker table.

Usually it is after I have bet pre flop from position, they have called, the flop has come raggy and disconnected, they bet, I call, they bet the turn, I call, they then make a large overbet all in on the river, and I call. I show my lowly, unimproved, pair, they muck their bluff in disgust and make the above comment.

First let me say that making such a call depends heavily on two things; first, my opponent must be a good, tricky and aggressive player (but not so good that they are able to play beyond the low level stakes I play at - obviously, otherwise they wouldn't be at my table). Second, I have watched them for a while, seen them enter a lot and bully a lot of pots and/or have a reasonable read on them.

Particularly in the latter case, it is common that the person is in almost every pot, or at least every other pot.

So how can I call, with over cards, a possible flush, a possible straight etc, etc out there?

I actually think a call is pretty easy in this situation, because:

1. They don't need a hand to bet, they just need to think my hand is less than the nuts

2. They usually mistake my ability to let go of a hand that I think is second best in a reasonable size pot as 'tight passive', and can be pushed out of the hand when scare cards hit

3. They are trying to sell a story that 50% of the time or more they have a premium hand or the nuts

4. which all goes into making their range so wide that, pretty much any hand against them that is better than 55% pre flop against a random hand, makes calling an all in bet the correct price.

Sure, they may have hit and have me beat, BUT, they are tricky players, so if they had hit the scare card, they would either checking to trap or betting small for value. The large bets, particularly all in on the river, can only be for intimidation.

Making that call is a profitable play for me. There is only one time in the last 18 months, that is hasn't worked - when a particularly smart opponent in our regular home game figured out what I was doing, and trapped me twice with a better hand. Then, once I figured that out, I am pretty sure he bluffed me out of the next two big pots too. My strategy at the moment for that particular guy is just not to get into any big pots with him unless I have a strong draw to, or, the nuts.

For everyone else however, I am running at about 15 all-in wins to one loss.

And here is the nice kicker - the super aggressive, bet and raise with any two cards, players, after a couple of beats like that, become the meekest loose passive players you can imagine. If I call their pre flop bet, all of a sudden they are checking down to the river or folding to any bet.

I am pretty sure I read a Mike Caro article to that effect in the past. Must see if I can dig it up.

Occasionally a situation will come up where I am forced to make a very marginal call. For example, say I have QQ, raise pre flop and get called. The flop comes something line K 7 9. I bet about half the pot and my opponent raises double my bet.

Now, can I fold? Well, the thing is, this particular opponent is the best player at the table. I have added 50% to my stack in the hour and a half we have been playing, but he has tippled up - and not though luck, but through shrewd, tight and aggressive play.

So I tank for a while to think about it.

One of the first things I consider is that (my play has been fishes arse hole tight) he almost certainly has put me on a big pair. AA, KK, QQ or JJ, and possibly AK, and he would have to give heavier weighting to QQ or JJ. Whether he considers me a good player or not, there is no disputing he has knows how tight I have been playing, and so I think he thinks that there is a very real chance I view the king as a scare card (which I do in fact).

On the other hand KK is one of the four possible hands I could have played this way.

His play though has also been tight, and his range is the same as mine with the inclusion of AK and any pocket pair (with his huge chip advantage, it is quite likely he would call pre flop with any pair, looking to flop a set).

Here is how the pot stands ($2/$3 blinds):

$5 from the blinds - I was BB
two callers +$6, my opponent on the button raises $20
I re-raise, suspecting a button steal, $60
fold, fold, call

the pot is now $131

the flop, as mentioned, is K 9 7, two clubs, one of my queens is a club and so is the king on the flop.

I bet $60, and my opponent raises to $120

At this point I am pretty sure he has a king. But I am also 100% sure he is capable of representing a king, putting me on either queens or jacks. The pot now stands at $311m giving me better than 5:1 to call. If he has a King, and I have two outs, is that enough? 8% to hit, no way.

BUT

I have runner runner to a flush, and runner runner to a straight, plus I MAY be ahead now (don't know how to figure that, so say 10%). So what does that give me?

I figure any 'runner runner; is worth somewhere between 1 1/2 to 2 outs. I know the math isn't exactly correct, but a flush is 10 out of 47 times 9 out of 47 = 4.1%. And a straight, assuming it remains open ended, is 8/47 x 8/47 = 3% near enough.

I must admit I could not do that math at the table - the over riding factor at the time was the thought that he was good enough to represent a king and push me off the hand. However, I was thinking about the runner-runner math, and decided it must add something, and I did roughly figure 2 outs.

Here is the final calculation: 10% I am ahead, plus 2 x 4% (I thought at the time) for drawing out, plus 8% to hit a queen on the next two cards - total 26%.

hmmm... at 5:1, them is calling odds

Still, I was not super sure I had figured it right, so there was one other thing I factored in - some fold equity. If I just called, there was absolutely no doubt that whatever came on the river, I was going to be facing another big bet and be playing for the rest of my stack. However, I felt that if I pushed now, and IF he was just representing a king, he would not be able to call, with something, say like A Q, A J, A 10 or an under pair. And unless he has trip kings himself, he must credit me with a 20 or 25% chance that is the hand I have (my tanking could be deception, though I doubt he buys that). So maybe another 1-2% in fold equity.

To call his $60 raise would leave me with $120 with $371 in the pot. If I bet the turn, it can only be all in, and If I don't bet, he will, and I will have a better than 4:1 odds decision.

Maybe he had a king, or maybe he had trips. Forget the king for a moment, if you are going to fold a premium hand in a big pot post flop on the possibility someone has made a set on a raggy, disconnected flop, then hello muppet, you can play at my table any time.

One thing is for sure, it is impossible to get the fold equity percentage by calling. It really seems I am driven to but one action.

All in it is then.

Insta call.

I show my queens. "You have a king?" I ask, but he shows pocket sevens for a flopped set. Not exactly what I was expecting, but in the range.

Turn is a blank. River is a queen. Fancy that. Lightning in a bottle as Mike Sexton would say.

I felt a bit sheepish about it at first. It was a loose-ish call of the raise on the flop. There is no doubt he had me pegged and out played me at that point. Never the less, I think I did not make any errors, all things considered, and was calling/betting with the right odds to make it correct.

I have to say, Crown Casino have always had a great poker room setup. It has been some months since I was last there, and if anything, it has improved over that time (an example Star City could do well to follow).

The electronic tables are still there, and popular, spreading 50c/$1 NLHE games. The lowest live dealer game was $2/$3 - which I quite warmed to. The nice thing about 2/3 is that it makes it very easy for the SB to limp in. And so, for me, I feel any hand at all is worth the extra $1 to see the flop.

I bought into the $2/$3 game, no waiting, converted cash for the max buy in of $200 in chips, and took my seat. Fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, check in the BB with K,5, nothing hit, fold, fold..... etc, etc for about the first 40 minutes.

The blinds and a few limped pots, plus call of a $15 pre flop raise with AQ, and my stack was now down to just $155. But, the good news was, I had had plenty of time to observe the table and get a feel for the other players.

From the small blind I limped in with A 7 off, with four other limpers. The BB called. The flop now comes 10 7 3. Middle pair, not bad, time to play a hand and find out where I am. I bet $20 into the $24 pot. The BB calls, every one else folds.

It is worth mentioning at this point that the BB had a BIG stack, may $700 or more, hard to say since there were quite a few green chips at the bottom of some of those big stacks of reds. He had also been playing lots of pots, and using his stack to bully the otherwise fairly tight table.

The turn comes 6, all suits are now out.

I check here, for two reasons; one, whatever I bet, I am very sure I will get a raise from my aggressive opponent, and his raise will give me no extra information other than he has a large enough chip stack to feel he can do that with impunity. Second is to try to exercise some pot size control - in vain as it turned out.

Predictably, my opponent bets. But I thought the amount he bet was revealing - $40. Now, if he was on some sort of weird straight draw, or even had made a straight, I felt sure he would have checked. Either to get a free card, complete his straight and try to felt me on the river, or to feign weakness and induce a bet from me on the river. If he had two pair or trips I could only see him making a smaller bet for value, or a larger bet if he thought I was on a draw.

Yet he had called my $20 flop raise, so he had to have something. If he had raised me on the flop, I could have credited him with top pair and maybe top kicker. But he just called, so I had to count that out.

The best hand I could put him on was A 7 like me, and the other possible hands were from Ace high or Ace with a weaker pair than mine.

So I called.

The river is a jack. A slightly scary card, but not very. I am sure he would have raised pre-flop with a jack and any other face card. He could have jack-rag, but it seems unlikely given the way he has played the hand so for.

Again I feel a bet will not help me, since a) any worthwhile bet will be the rest of my stack, and b) I will certainly get a raise for anything less. I check again.

He bets $100, $10 more than I have. Now, I think that is a very interesting bet. He can not have a strong hand, otherwise he would be value betting. The $100 is an amount that screams 'I don't want to be called'. So I call.

He turns over A 3. Ha.

The dealer shoves all the chips over to me before I can mention that the $100 actually had me covered. By that time the chips are all mixed up, and it would be impossible to sort out, so I just shut up and accept the $10 bonus in my favour.

Embolden with a nice double up, I enter a few more pots with strong aces or connectors, but fold to aggressive post flop bets and nothing hitting for me.

About an orbit later I am UTG with 10 J off. I figure I will try and see a cheap flop, about 50% of pots are limped by this table pre flop, so I think it worth the risk. I call the $3. So do six other people and the SB, the BB checks. Talk about value.

The flop is K Q 9 rainbow. Wow. Don't see that happen often. What a nice flop.

The SB is one of two older (65+) guys at the table. They are both playing ultra tight, waiting for big pockets and then making big bets. I have entered maybe one pot in eight, they have been in less than one pot in sixteen.

The ultra tight SB bets $30 into the $27 pot. He has A K. Can't be anything else - or maybe, just maybe, A Q (less likely), pocket 9's (more likely) or K Q (most likely if not A K). What worries me though, it even though I have the nuts now, a hand like A J/10 is very possible for someone else, and if SB old guy has K Q, another one of those on the board would not be good for me.

What I want to do is push out the possible gut shots, and maybe even get the SB to lay down a hand that could improve to the nuts. I raise to make it $90 to go - a pot size raise in other words.

Everyone folds to the SB. Who tanks, and tanks. Minutes tick by. I am quite happy to let him think, but eventually someone else at the table calls time on him and the floor person gives him 30 seconds to act.

Instead of calling, he surprises me and goes all in. I insta-call. He flips pocket aces as I turn over the straight. Just to make it interesting, a jack comes on the turn, but a six follows, and I add another $200 to my stack. Pocket aces was certainly not a hand I had put him on, limping into the pot as he did. He was in the small blind and with so many callers, how could he expect not to be outdrawn?

I heard some muttering from the table that, apparently, I had played the hand in the worst possible way, referring to how I had flopped the nuts, yet put in a large raise. It is very true that just calling the $30 bet would have offered a price of 3:1 and almost certainly got at least one, and probably two, more calls into the pot. But who would call? Anyone who could outdraw me, that's who.

Which as it turned out, if the comment of 'I would have made the ace high straight' from one of the folded players can be believed, is exactly what would have happened.

If I had gambled, I might have made another $60, or, with the jack hitting on the river, could well have lost $200 or more. So in effect, balancing a possible $200 loss against a $60 extra win, it looked to me like I was getting better than 3:1 odds to make the big raise and push those draws out of the pot.

I think two principles apply here:

1. The money you don't lose is exactly the same as the money you win

2. Reverse implied odds of likely hands in the pot on a draw, ie A J, A 10, K Q, K 9, Q 9, 9 9, meant one or more of the other six people could have had 4, 6 or 9 outs. They would have to pay to beat me.

Maybe the extra $60 was a little too heavy in hindsight, but at the time, it felt right. All I can really say is that, since the outcome was positive in my favour, it achieved what I wanted it to.

I had another small win, and donked off about $60 with two loose plays as a bank for future action. But at 1:30am, time call, it was enough for me. I could feel the long day of travel catching up with me and knew I was starting to leak tells. So could the some of the better players at the table, who said 'not leaving already' and 'you've only just sat down' - with an eye to my juicy chip stack no doubt. 'Sorry fella's, been a long day, thanks for the game' I said ('and all the chips' I didn't say).

Cash out was $570. A nice result.

I think it is worth mentioning some of the nicer aspects of the Las Vegas room at Crown Casino:

1. The staff know what they are doing and treat the players well

2. The dealers are very competent, using that visually pleasing 'cards in the air' style of dealing, with plenty of spin and accurately dropping the cards in front of each position.

3. LOTS of tables. Maybe 40 on the main floor.

4. They keep the tables full. Each dealer has a little electronic pad that send a signal back to the pit when someone leaves a table. The vacant seat is usual filled within a few minutes.

5. Reasonable rake - on the $2/$3 table the rake was 10% of the pot, capped at $6, with a $5 per hour time charge.

6. Sensible buy-ins of more than 50 big blinds for all games. And you can top up at any time.

Recent home games seem to have taken aggression in No Limit Hod'em to new levels. At different games I now see at least two players prepared to raise the pot pre flop on almost every hand, and in addition, keep betting and raising post flop.

I have tried that strategy myself, but for my style, it just doesn't seem to work for me. However, the good news is, I think I have added a few plays that can effectively neutralize that sort of play in others, at least against me.

The first technique is nothing new - coming directly from a Mike Caro article in Bluff Magazine. In the face of a aggressive pre flop raiser, just call them down to the river. As long as you are heads up against the aggressor, any hand in the top 1/3 of starting hands is going to see you picking up the pot about 2/3rds of the time.

I used this the other night at a new game with mostly players I had not met before. By the end of the evening I noticed that the main aggressor would a) only enter a pot if I had already folded, or b) if he was out of position and already in the pot, would only call or check, even when he had the 2nd nuts on the river.

The second technique, and the one that suits me the most, is also very basic. Simply tighten up my starting hand selection and then be very aggressive with raises through the hand. BUT, still be prepared to fold to a dangerous board (such as a four flush where I don't have a card in the flush suit). It also helps/requires having a bit of a read on my opponent, for example, with a four flush board I will gladly throw in a river bet 'for value' if I think my opponent either has no card or a low card in the flush suit.

I find with this sort of play I will win about 65% of hands, which are often big, if not all-ins. The hands I lose, I hopeful have folded before I have committed a lot of my chips, but even taking into account the cases of bad reads and poor judgment on my part (unfortunately fairly common), my net gain is still 3:2.

I am still some way away from refining this style, in particular with regards to finding the most profitable way to handle preflop action. At the moment I am using this as my rough guide to enter a pot:

- any pair
- any suited connectors down to 3,4
- any connectors 9,10 and above
- AQ
- AJ, A10 in late position

About equally I will limp, call, or if first into the pot raise with those hands, from any position. I find I need to do that to mix it up so the other players can't put me on a specific hand. Although I will generally always raise pre flop with AA, KK, QQ or JJ. I can tell you it is very satisfying when a maniac player finally gets KK, and gets taken out by 2 pair on a 3,4,10 flop.

I have encountered this type of player many times now - where they seek to educate the table on the way a hand was played, or how it should have been played.

The two reasons someone would do that (other than at a friendly home game where everyone knows each other) are:

a) they are insecure and are trying to bolster their own self confidence by 'showing off' their poker knowledge

b) they are trying to intimidate the other players with their (in their opinion) superior poker knowledge

Me, I have always found it a bit irritating, but pretty much ignore it. Well, ignore it with one exception - a bad beat from such a player against me will tend to put me on tilt. I just hate seeing them 'rewarded' for, what I consider, a poor tactic. But generally, I have treated their blather as inconsequential.

However, sitting at a table on Friday night with just such a self appointed 'expert' to my right, it occurred to me that his expert analysis of hands was giving me quite a lot of information. Information about him that is.

Only three hands into the session, I was UTG with AKs and made it $10 to go (in a $1/$2 game). One call from mid position, and the expert in the BB also calls. The flop is all low with two spades. BB expert checks to me, I c-bet $20 into the $31 pot. Mid position folds. BB comes over the top and announces 'Raise to $130'.

I had listened to him giving advice to the table on the first two hands I had seen, explaining, to obviously novice players, how they could not call his bet, telling them what they must have etc, etc. The $130 raise was about half his chip stack, so his strategy seemed to be working for him - a combinations of intimidation and bullying with his stack.

I thought for about 5 seconds, but I could only see such a huge overbet as a bluff. Also, why bet $130? I only had $80 in front of me, having just sat down, so why not raise to either $80 or just go all in? My read at that point was he was so enamored with his own superior knowledge that he wasn't really taking any notice of anyone else - including the fact I was a new player, was twice his age, or whatever other information that might have indicated a raise UTG pre flop from me may actually represent a good hand.

I could imagine him playing any two cards, and it was certainly possible that one may have hit and I was behind. In the worst case I figured I would have two overcards. I certainly did not put him on an overpair to the board, which, according to his own comment on a previous hand meant 'you always have to re-raise with pocket 9's or better bro'. Nor would such a large overbet be consistent with two pair or trips.

Strong is weak, weak is strong. An easy call.

The dealer quickly dealt the turn and the river. The turn was an ace, the river a blank. The expert showed me one ace 'I have and ace bro' he informed me. 'Me too' I said showing my AK. He mucked his other card face down.

Then came the inevitable analysis. 'How could you call that', 'you called that so quick, but there was no way you could have put me on anything but a trips', 'Bro, I had you smashed if I had a pair, you can't call a big reraise like that with nothing on the flop', and so an and so forth for the next 15 minutes. All the while building up my information on how he was going to play future hands.

But after 15 minutes I had well and truly reached the level of diminishing returns, where no additional information he could impart would be worth listening to more of his rambling. 'Mate' I said to him 'You know you can only bluff good players'.

I don't know for sure if they were crooked or not. But there is no doubt in my mind that collusion is ruling the $80 game at Star City at the moment.

When you see three people - who do a poor job of disguising that they know each other - coming over the top on nearly every hand and forcing out other players (except super premium hands of course, and we all know how often they hit). Usually they will try to end the hand by the turn, but it doesn't always work, and sometimes they have to show the quality hand they made the $60 re-raise into a $20 pot with. 8 4, J 5, A 7, and other such quality.

It means you have to risk your whole stack any hand you want to play in.

I took down a big pot with AA UTG when my $10 pre flop raise was reraised to $20 and then $40. I pushed, of course, and got one caller. AA hit on the flop, and I didn't get to see what my opponent had. But then a few hands later with A Q on the button, I reraised a $6 raise and a call to $20. Got three callers. The flop was all low, it was checked to me, I bet $30, to find myself raised to $60, then reraised to $120. I had to fold, went to showdown and a A 6 lost to an A 9.

Lost my whole stack with A K. I reraised a $10 bet from late position to $25, and was called by the first bettor. Flop has an ace and two low cards, both clubs. My opponent bets $30, I can't see how I am behind at this stage, credit him with a possible draw. Since there is about $100 in the pot and I have $120, I push. He insta-calls, showing 8 4 clubs. A club hits on the turn and he takes the pot with his eight high flush.

The thing is, very few hands are going to be better than 2:1. Sitting around waiting for pocket aces and kings all night is just going to see your stack eventually blinded away. But getting your money in with the best hand means a) committing all your chips and b) facing two or three opponents. Being 2:1 against three people means being the mathematical underdog on the hand.

I can only see one way to beat it. Muck all hands that aren't the nuts or a draw to the nuts or better than 4:1 against the possible range of hands. Hope you get one of those hands early on. Take the double or triple up if you don't get out-drawn. And leave.

Well, the wait time is down for a table at least. 1/2 is the most I waited on Friday and Saturday, and it was pretty busy there too. They are opening up tables now to meet demand. At last.

But wow, everything else seems just that much worse. There is clear and active colluding going on, which is unavoidable I guess, but it is so blatant. The rules seem to change on a nightly basis, for example:

- I have been told two $5 chips is not a raise against a $6 bet unless 'raise' is said it is taken as a call. I tossed in 2 $5 chips last night and was told it was a raise unless 'call' was said.

- I have asked if I could top up in the past, to be told that no, I needed to have no chips and then make a complete new buy in. But last night a player at the table was aloud to add on $35 to top back up to $80

- $80 is the max buy in. Yet the dealer does nothing, sometimes, if a stack suddenly grows by a green or a black chip between a hand

- I put in a call of $2 because I didn't see or hear a raise (blind spot behind the dealer from where I was sitting), and got told I couldn't take it back so I either had to call the raise or forfeit the money. Yet last night, players were aloud to take back chips for just about any reason.

Look, I don't care what the rules are, as long as they stay the same so I know where I am. Changing them at random is just not right.

Now, about collusion. I know there is very little the casino can do about it, but, it would be only fair if it were possible to change tables. To change tables at Star you have to pick up from the table you are at, re-register, and then pay time fees and post at the new table. How sucky is that.

Oh, and here's another thing - with 60 odd on the waiting list, the table I was at on Friday was playing 6 handed for over an hour. The table I was at on Saturday was playing mostly 7 or eight handed for most of the 3 hours I was there. Sheesh.

I was standing behind a lady while waiting to register. She had been away to get a meal and wanted to be reseated. 'You have to wait your turn' said the casino host. 'But I have been playing all day for over eight hours and I only went away to have some dinner' said she. 'too bad' the host told her, fairly rudely I thought, 'you still have to wait for a table'.

For crying out loud, how hard would it have been, with seats free all over the place, to give the lady a seat? Treating patrons with such discourtesy like that is very poor if you ask me. An hours play at the $1/2 table is going to net the house about $5x10 + 20x$8 = $210. I can understand that that might not be a great return for the floor space. No problem - don't spread the freaking games then.

But if you are going to spread them, then at least make an effort.

While I have been wallowing in self pity at my sub standard play of late, Martin Rowe has gone on to win the AAPT.

I have played in tournaments with, and against, Martin over the last three years, first at the NPPL games at the Kirribilli Hotel, then at APL games at the North Sydney Club, and most recently he introduced me to the Wednesday tournament at Star City. I know Martin, not well enough to be 'friends', but he seems like a really nice guy to me, never loses his cool at the poker table (that I have ever seen), and can take a bad beat with the same pleasant 'that's poker' smile as his picture shows for his $1M will (well, maybe the smile is a bit wider in the photo).

From a purely self centered point of view, what I like most about Martin's big win, is that I always rated his play in the same ball park as mine. I hope that doesn't sound conceited, and I don't want to take anything away from his win. Rather, I am just reporting how I have ranked his play against mine in the past.

For a few months last year I was venue leader at the APL game at the North Sydney club. Martin and I swapped the lead back and forth for a few weeks, but then since I could only play 2 games a month due to work travel, and he was playing 3-4, he passed me and I couldn't catch back up. So at least at that time, I think we were about equal.

He has certainly far surpassed me in recent times - the big win speaks for itself. But, perhaps it means that with the right build up and practice, I too could be a contender in such a tournament?

hmmm... food for thought.

I don't know what has been wrong with me lately, but my play has been very defensive and, I hate to say it, but it's true, timid.

What's more, as well as checking or laying down hands I should raise or re-raise with, I have been making donkey calls in pots where all I can beat is middle pair or a bluff.

It seems like I am doing the right thing at the time. I am working out the odds and the range of hands that are likely for my opponent, and then making the decision based on the pot odds etc. But when I think through how I played after (after being felted that is), all I can do is wonder why I played so badly at the time.

Yes, the math is actually right, probably. But the way I play it given what I know about my opponent, the way the table is playing and other information is absolutely dead wrong.

I still have a reasonable feel pre flop, and my bets there are right, I am sure. The after the flop it all goes to pieces, and where I was ahead, I let people in too cheaply, or where I am behind I make an ill-timed bluff, or just call a bet that is most likely a bluff. And then by the river, I am in fact beat (I know this because I have called enough to the river to see that I was ahead to start).

I am now stuck about $600. $300 from the Sky City tournament, $200 from the $5/$5 cash game at Star City, $30 from the Altberts Tavern sit-n-go and the rest from low stakes home games. Oh yeah and another $120 from some ill considered play on line at Pacific Poker. That is a little over half my bank roll.

I can't pick any specific reason why things have gone so pear shaped. But I think these are some contributing factors:

1. Not playing regularly, and then playing alternate tournaments and cash games. At the next tournament I am still in cash game thinking mode, and then vice versa.

2. Lots of travel recently, plus more hours at work, leading to general fatigue and so not as sharp as I could be at the poker table

3. Read two books about sit-n-go and fast tournament strategy. They had some radical ideas and both advocated, with reasoned justification, very aggressive play from position. I think that has screwed my thinking a bit, and just doesn't work at the donkey low limit/free roll games I play where a lot of players don't understand position or what raising might mean.

4. Maybe because of 2. I seem to have become somewhat introspective at the poker table. I am not seeing possible straights and just not picking up play patterns from other players.

So here is what I am going to do. I am going back to absolute basics. I an ONLY going to play top hands and ONLY play them very aggressively. Plus, I will lay down non made hands to aggressive post flop betting, and play draws strictly to the odds. However nut draws I am going to semi-bluff as if I was trying to block the draw.

I will c-bet where I believe I am 50% or better to have the best hand. And if I have a made hand, I will make my opponents pay the wrong price to beat me.

No more of this namby pamby shit. BUT, if it is clear I am beat and drawing dead, I am going to trust my reads and not the math, and lay down a second best hand no matter what odds I am offered to call.

And, I am going to re-read the three Phil Gordon books - the most sensible advice I have ever read for beginner to intermediate players. That should get my head right.

I am starting to feel better already. Let's see how it goes.

I don;t play APL much any more. Low prize tournament freerolls have sort of lost their appeal, most Perth venues are not that good, and I don't get much time in Sydney, Never the less, I always try to make time to go to the Kirribilli Club Tuesday night game. If nothing else the food is good and the venue is fantastic.

So what is a good strategy for the APL structure?

Actually, there isn't really on I don't think. The blind increases are fast and it very quickly means that a wide range of hands have to be played, aggressively, to stay ahead of the blinds. Add to that the mix of poor and novice players, those who will not let a hand go, will chase to the river, etc, mean bad beats are very common.

There is no amount of skill that can guarantee a win, or even a final table seat when the field is over 30. But I think there is some skill that can at least get you into the points (final 16) fairly regularly. For smaller numbers, 3 tables or less, I used to have the following results:

1/2 of the time I would not place
1/2 of the time I would make the final table
and if I made the final table, 1/3 of the time I would win

In bigger fields however, it was much more of a crap shoot, but 1/3 the time I would make it to the final 16 and the points.

Here is the strategy I found most successful:

- always raise an unraised or limed pot with a pair of 9's or above, about 4 x BB + the value of the limps. Fold anything after the flop except AA if an ace hits the flop and there is action
- limp/call at least one raise with any pair, try and hit trips
- where the table limps a lot, also limp. Let middle pair or less go to any action, but the implied odds mean it quite likely you can double up if you connect well with the flop
- it is usually a profitable play to semi bluff with a four flush if you have a face card
- semi bluffs with straight draws tend not to be profitable, maybe because many players don't see the possible straight
- don't expect playing tight to get any respect, from any position
- don't expect anyone else to understand position
- do expect many players to limp with any one or two face cards and any ace from any position.
- A limper calling a raise is often indicates two face cards or any ace
- don't expect a 'standard' raise of 3 x BB or less to push any limper out of the pot.

I think the Pro style most suited to do well as an APL game would be closest to Phil Helmuth - making stabs with good hands, but laying down if it doesn't become a monster, waiting patiently for the nuts or near nuts, and then felting your opponents as they continue to assume you will lay down.

Since you are not going to see a lot of hands, maybe 60 in the whole game, it is quite likely you are not going to get enough good hands to be able to make headway. If that happens, well, it just does. When you are down to about 15-20 BB's, switch gears and go mad - any suited ace, any two face cards, any pair, enter any limped pot, or any two cards that are likely to be live. You have nothing to lose at that stage, and you will rarely be worse than a 2:1 dog, and often a lot better. Donkeying back the donkeys can be pretty satisfying too.

It is presumptuous to think that I should have a 'signature hand'. The most well known would have to be Mr Brunson with 10 2, possibly followed by Mr Helmuth with the black 9's.

But....

If I were to claim such a thing for myself, I think it would have to be 7 4.

Twice now I have won huge pots with that hand. The first time was when I limped in from the small blind with the pot offering 5:1, and flopped a full house.

The second time was at my home game last night. We had agreed it would be the last hand of the evening. First position called, second position raised the 50c blind to $2. Everyone else called to me in the cut-off. Since it was the last hand, and I was well up, and I had exactly $2.50 'spare' sitting on top of my neat ten high stacks of chips, I thought 'what the heck' and called too. As did the blinds and the UTG limper.

And what do you know, the flop comes 7s 4c 6c. It is checked around to me and I figure I have got to be ahead, but there are a lot of possible draws. I will take the pot right now thank you, and bet the pot of $20.

The button flat calls, as does the SB and two mid position players. Wow. What the hell could they have? Someone must have trips, or two people maybe. I think the button has either made a straight, or is on the nut flush draw. It seems reasonable that the latter callers could be on draws, since they are well priced into the pot. I guess that is $20 I wont be seeing again.

The turn is a beautiful, gorgeous, sexy 7c. I have the 2nd nuts. It might slow down someone with the straight, but the flush draws have come home and anyone with trip 6's or 4's has made a boat, but is crushed. I only have to fear a 7 6 hand.

Well, it is checked around to me again. I either have the nuts or I am drawing dead, but I don't think it is the latter. What I don't want is to let someone with an overpair into the river for free and hit to make a bigger full house. I am never going to be able to get away from my hand anyway, and the pot is a huge $100. I have $70 in front of me, and that is the price anyone must pay to see the next card. All in.

The two mid position players muck straight away (and out of turn). Arrie, the SB goes to move his last $18 in to call, but Anne, the player on my left, is still to act. Anne tanks for a long time. I have her covered but it is still a $50 call for her. Minutes tick by and I can feel the anguish.

It may have been because the hour was late and it had been a long day, but I came up with a somewhat dubious brain wave that I thought would get them to call. I offered both players that I would show them one card of their choice for $1. My reasoning was, that whatever card they picked they would see it either paired or made trips on the board. If it was the 4, they would have to consider another 4 as the most likely unseen card. if it was a 7, it was most likely the unseen card was a blank. I figured that if they had made the flush or the straight, they would then have to call.

Only Arrie took up the offer. He picked the 4.

Anne thought on it some more, and then reluctantly folded.

Arrie also mucked. He must have figured his two pair or overpair was no good, even at the better than 6:1 odds the pot was laying him.

Oh well. I wont try that one again.

Never the less, the mighty 7 4 came through again.

Oh, like you have never heard the classic Led Zep song Black Dog?

In that one song there are more great guitar rifts than other musicians manage in their career.

As Tom Petty once remarked 'It's very hard to find a new rift, Jimmy Page used all the good ones in his Led Zep days'.

Coincidently, I also own a black dog. Even more coincidently (when we picked her up from a dog shelter, she was already named) her name is 'Vegas".

Do you ever get that situation where you muck some raggy hand like 10 6, and the flop comes 10 10 6. Then a few hands later you get the same hand, muck it in the face of aggressive raises, and the flop comes 7 8 9? Then get it again only a few hands later? Does it seem to you like the gods of fate are trying to tell you something? So you play it, get two pair on the flop, bet big, and then crushed as your opponent chases you down and hits a flush on the river.

Maybe I just remember those situation because they are so memorable. But is seems to me it happens about once every three sessions.

The best possible thing to do is to train yourself to forget your cards completely once they hit the muck.

I played in the Star City 'Big Game' Wednesday tournament last night. $330 buy in and 5,000 starting stack. A couple of poker buddies had suggested that they thought it was a positive expectation game. Martin, who I think is around the same level player as me (probably better at tournaments since that is his preference over cash games), said he had cashed 4 times out of the 12 times he has played.

I entered with not a great expectation of cashing, being the first large, non-freeroll, live tournament I have played in. But I figured if I gave it my best shot, could bring my A game to the table, I at least would not be dead money. My bankroll is at a level now that a non-cash result is not devastating. Plus, it would be good experience.

My strategy was simple - play really tight in the early rounds, be aggressive with premium hands, and keep the pots small when I don't have a lock on the hand.

It seemed to be pretty much what everyone else was doing too.

I limped into one or two pots in the first level, either in the blinds or in late position, with speculative hands (K J suited being 'speculative' at this level of tightness). And got away from them with no extra cost when the flop missed and there were other bets.

At the 2nd level - 50/100, I was UTG with A K suited. I raised to 400 - 3 x BB was the standard for the table, and thought that my obvious tight play to date (entered 3 hands in 3 orbits) might let me take down the pot right away. Now such luck, there were 2 callers. The flop was raggy, with a queen. I now consider my next move a mistake; I checked, mid position caller checked, and the other caller, who was on the button, raised bet out 1,200. We both folded.

As the pre-flop raiser, I should have made the continuation bet. If I had done, I believe I would have won the pot. I believe the button only bet because of the weakness I and the other player showed. Anyway, no great harm done at this stage.

I took down a couple of smaller pots, and recovered my chips, over the next couple of orbits. One with a post flop check raise when I was the BB to an obvious button steal attempt, and one with a button steal of my own with K 9 suited and only one limper.

As usual, I had had very few playable hands for the 45 hands dealt in 4 and a bit orbits. Never the less, I was beginning to feel comfortable with the way it was going so far.

At the 75/150 level I am UTG with cowboys. I make it 600 to go. They guy on my left, who I have seen play a lot with Ace rag calls, everyone else folds. A dreaded ace comes on the flop. I bet 600 and am immediately raised to 1,200. Shit. I have to let it go. I have seen him play a lone ace to the river, and bet just the way he has now when an ace has hit. The most chance I can give to a bluff us 20%. I muck the kings.

Now I have about 3,500. Pocket 4's is my best hand for another obit, which I call a 2 x BB raise to see a four way flop. Then fold to a raise and a re-raise post flop with A Q J on the board.

At the 100/200 level I claw back some chips when I am in the BB let into the flop with four callers. I have Kh 3s and the flop is raggy with 2 spades. I check, and so does everyone else. The turn is the ace of spades. I check again, and so does everyone else. The river is the 6 of spades. Fantastic, a flush for me - the 2nd worst possible. I check, two others check, the button bets 300. 300 into the 1,100 pot means it is 300 for me to win 1,400. Well, it only needs one of the other four to have a spade to beat me, but no one looked happy about the bet, two guys are almost already mucking and just waiting for me to act. I asses the button, he is aggressive and tricky, and completely capable of making a stab at the pot in the face of weakness from the table. I am getting better than 4 1/2 to one on my money, so I call.

Everyone else folds. We turn over our hands and my 3 high flush wins the pot. I think I have at least half the table pegged for reads now.

Blinds and what not attrition my stack again, and at the end 150/300 level I have just over 3,000. There is a short break, and when we return I will be officially short stacked with blinds at 200/400.

My strategy at this point is to simply wait for the right hand and push. I get a chance to do that from the BB with A Q suited and pick up a handy 1,000. Slightly more breathing space, but not much.

My next break comes on the button with very pretty A A. There is a call, a raise from mid position to 1,200 and folds to me. No point stuffing around and being out drawn. I push again. Caller folds, and raiser thinks for a long time. I use my powers of telepathy to beam 'call, call, call' at him. But in the end he folds. I catch a glimpse of his cards as he mucks - K and what looks like Q, both red, so they could have been suited. I decide to show my aces, because I think maintaining a tight image might come in handy later.

Quite accidentally (honest), a few hands later I muck A 7 from late position, but they catch on a chip and both flip face up. There is the odd gasp/comment from the able to effect of 'playing way too tight'. Perhaps. But since it has happened, I figure I can put it to use later on.

The blinds now hit 300/600 and I am short again with 5,200. K Q is good enough on the button with two limper's and I push. A short stack with 2,500 in the BB calls - I was hoping for that. And everyone else folds. He has A 9. I get lucky with a king and take the pot.

Again with A Q suited on the button, the player to my left raises to 1,800. I have him covered by about 1,200, and I know he has been playing very loose to try to build his small stack. I go all in again. Everyone folds and my opponent shows A J. Great.. until the inevitable jack hits on the turn and I am reduced to a pale wraith with 1,200 chips.

But I get a string of good hands, A 9, A 10, A J, and push with each of them over the next 8-10 hands. Miraculously I am now back up to 6,000 with the blinds just up to 400/800.

One more time I think, in the cutoff with A 9. I push, but run into pocket queens in the BB. Which hold up. Ah well.

Apart from the early mistake being too timid with the A K, I thought I played the hands I was dealt about as well as I could. The critical moment was when I had the A J dominated with A Q. If my hand had held up there, I would have had over 12,000 chips, and, with the rush of quality hands I had later on, perhaps even made it into the money.

Even with the ridiculously short stack of 1,200 I was left with, I think I managed to pick my timing well and use it to my best advantage. My last play of all in with A 9 was indeed questionable, considering I had no less that five all ins in the two preceding orbits. I could feel that the table was getting pretty sick of it, yet correctly also guessed that no one wanted to double up such a maniac player, or risk that portion of their stack that mine represented, to some bad beat even if I was on a complete bluff. I only had three random hands to beat, with well above average cards.

On reflection, with the blinds seconds away from going up to 400/800, I was risking 6 big blinds to win 2 big blinds. If I had thought about it that way, I would have realized that my fold equity was at best 60%, and possibly far less given the growing agitation at my spree of consecutive pushes. Without a made hand, I should have waited, even though the next blind payment would reduce my stack to only 5 big blinds.

All in all, I can now see how a 1-in-4 cash in such a tournament would be possible, given a more even spread of playable hands, and the the luck to avoid those three outer suck outs.

Conclusion: Will probably be back next time I am in Sydney.