blackdog's Poker Blog

I know. Go figure.

Playing in the regular home game (NLHE, 10c/20c blinds) the other night, I made top pair (mediocre kicker) on the flop against one a fairly tight aggressive player, who's game I tend to respect.

There were was a straight draw possible, but as it was checked to me, I figured I was good at this point. He would have checked both a draw and a complete miss, and bet out if he had something like top pair or two pair. I made a 2/3 pot bet, so that if he was on a draw he would call, and also he would probably stay in the pot with something like middle pair, top kicker.

Sure enough he called, narrowing his range to those two possible hands.

The turn card, a nine, gave me two pair, but also completed the possible high straight. The pot was $10 and he checks to me. I need to find out if he has the straight or not. My thinking goes; if he has, he has the nuts at this point, and in that case, if I bet, he will call and try and trap me on the river, probably with a check raise. On the other hand, if he has only middle pair still, he will fold, but would not put any more into the pot anyway.

I bet $6, he calls. He has the straight and I have six outs.

The river is a king, giving me kings full of nines. Very nice.

Sure enough, my opponent checks. I think for a few minutes, and look like I am counting the pot (which I know full well is $22). What I want to do here is make a bet that looks like a bluff and induce him to check raise me. $12 seems about right.

Very quickly he raises to $35. I again pause for a bit, to consider if it is possible he could have King Jack, giving him a bigger full house than mine. Would he have plaid that hand differently? I decide I don't really know, but it is too remote a chance to worry about. I have $55 in front of me and push it all in.

My opponent calls. I show my boat, he shows his straight. 'Nice hand' he sighs.

While I am stacking my chips, Idiot Brain - another regular who is the commentator on every hand, expert on every situation, and self appointed trainer and corrector of the less experienced players - starts mouthing off that I had hit 'runner runner full house'. Saying things like 'oh he was so lucky on that hand', and telling a couple of people who had just come back from a smoke how I had stacked the other player with runner runner.

Nice of him to make those comments on a hand he wasn't even in. I guess if only he had been in the hand, things would have been different. I thought about saying something like 'you do understand that the first 'runner' in a full house makes two pair or trips, don't you?' But I just couldn't be bothered putting in the effort to break into his loud mouth ramblings.

(IB, by the way, is a player I often call down with middle or bottom pair to, quite safely, take the pot. He has a least five tells he is oblivious to and are about as obvious as KGB's Oreos.)

Ah well. Tools will be tools, and it is a poor workman that blames his tools.

I was playing on Sunday afternoon at Star City, for the first time in ages, the other day, and lost a stack in a hand I am still having trouble getting my head around.

Star City now has a $200 max buy in for the $1/$2 NLHE game - a welcome improvement, even though it remains the highest raked game in Australia, with a $5/hour time charge and 10% pot rake.

Anyway, I took my seat at the table with $200 in front of me. A quick survey showed a couple of stacks in the $400 range, most in the $100-$200 range, and one monster stack that looked like at least $1,000, belonging to a young asian guy. At least I think he was a guy, he looked very effeminate, perhaps his night job was as a 'lady-boy'. Not that I care, I am just making the point that his appearance was particularly feminine.

I won a few small pots without any drama in the first hour, to the extent that after time charges and rake I was up exactly $5. I had not been in any pots with LB (the young asian guy), but had been observing the way he played, and though I hadn't seen many of his hands go to showdown, he seemed to be making sensible bets and folds, looked like he had a reasonable read on his opponents, and was playing in a tight/aggressive style, without being a maniac. I therefore formed the view he had earned his stack and his play was worth respect.

So this is how the puzzling hand played out:

I am in early position and see AQ spades, I raise to $12 (a normal pre-flop raise for the table), and it is folded around to LB in the cutoff who calls, and everyone else folds.

The flop comes all low with two spades, 4, 5, 7. It looks harmless to me, given the pre-flop action, and I make a c-bet of $20.

LB immediately announces a raise and puts in $60.

And I reason thusly;

1. If he had AK before the flop, he would have 3 bet most of the time

2. If he had large pockets, say down to 10,10 or even 9,9, he would have 3 bet

3. His pre flop call was therefore most consistent with a) a small pair, b) an ace with a kicker weaker than mine c) Something like K x, maybe J, or even J,10, suited spades, so he now has a flush draw too

4. His raise may therefore represent a) Top pair with an ace kicker, b) A flush draw worse than mine c) ace high with a kicker worse than mine, d) a small-ish over pair e) a set f) a bluff or semi-bluff, say with A, mid or bottom pair, attempt to buy the pot

I feel I have pretty well picked his range and likely hands, but I have absolutely no read on him at all as far as tells go. For the purposes of my next action, I decide to ignore the possibility of trips (I have mentioned before I don't think you can correctly base actions on the fear of someone making trips, unless they are giving off a solid tell). Which means, I either have him beat now with a better draw/kicker/overcards, or he has me beat, but with only an overpair of eights or nines.

If he has pocket eights or nines, then I think I am in good shape to represent a bigger pair, because, I raised from early position pre-flop (and he must have noticed I am a tight player), and lead out post flop showing strength. So I figure a decent re-raise here should mean he will have to fold medium pocket pairs, and lay down any hand worse than mine. If he has made trips, well, he has, and I am going to lose a stack to a 1 in 200 event and that's the way it is.

A decent re-raise here would be about $150-$180, leaving me only a few dollars, hence I announce 'all in'.

LB insta calls.

The dealer quickly deals out the last two cards (red J, red Q) before either of us have a chance to turn ours over. We flip at about the same time and the dealer announces 'Straight wins'.

WTF???

The title may have given it away, but LB had 3 6 off suit, and had flopped the nuts. I did not see that one coming.

What was I meant to do? Could that have been anticipated? Is there a big flaw in my thinking that causes me to lose a stack with ace high to the nut straight? Or was it just one of those random things from an opponent being hit with the deck where I was giving them too much credit?

I still can't figure it out.

I bought back in anyway. Over the next couple of hours I saw LB stack three other players with; K 4 off, vs A K, where he hit a king on the flop, called a large bet, another king came on the turn, called the all in, and then hit a 4 on the river. Made an eight high runner, runner flush against a flopped two pair, and called a $60 all in from a short stacked player with Q,10 vs Q9. Hmmm.

He cashed out a little while later with over $1,500, and I was not sorry to see him go.

I ended up wining back my first stack, plus $100, so it weren't all bad.

Our regular home game in Perth has been running for two years this month. As a micro stakes game, with 10c/20c blinds, it gives people the opportunity to play a deep stack cash game for less than a single buy in at a casino (my typical buy in is $50, and most buy in for somewhere between $20 and $50). The game is made up of a wide range of players and styles, averaging something like 1/3 aggressive 'online' styles, 1/3 tight passive/aggressive and 1/3 wtfk's what hand or bet will be played next. Which pretty much always makes for a fun night.

I think everyone who has been a regular over the two years has seen their game improve. I know I certainly have, I have seen some styles and play from some whom I consider very good players that I have adopted into my own game, and I have learned something from just about every player there at some point.

For some time I have maintained the view that anyone able to hold their own at the home game, will be a winning player at the casino - at least at the $1/2 and $2/3 level. And that indeed does seem to be the case, as a number of the home game players have reported. Several in fact have made their first forays to the casino as a direct result of the 'practice' they have had, and have come out ahead.

Just 'by accident' the other day I revisited the Burswood Casino poker room - to cut a boring story short - car was in for a service, casino on other side of Gt Eastern H/Way from car service, walked to casino while waiting for car.

Saturday morning at 11am, one table open, the players were about a 50/50 mix of old/retired guys (and one woman) and younger 'fly in/fly out' guys from the mines/rigs with cash to burn. The older players all seemed to know each other, and the casino staff, and were obviously regulars. From what I gathered, they were mainly there to go in the tournament later in the day, and were playing the $2/3 table to pass the time.

I have previously rated Burswood as the worst poker room in Australia. I think it has gotten a little better, but what I didn't include in my evaluation what just how soft the low stakes game is there.

In casino poker rooms I have played on over the last 4-5 years, very often I have not been the 'best' player at the table. Sometimes I would even go as far to say I am the dead money (though not very often), or a combination of being not the best plus a cold deck make it seem that way. So I am used to not getting too mixed up with the hyper aggressive 10,000 hand per day multi-table online players and the pro's slumming it until the high stakes tables open, and just waiting for a solid hand that will take out the low hanging fruit.

Yet, here I was on a Saturday morning at what seemed to me to be a table of me, and nine fish. It's not that the older players were bad, rather, just tight and fairly passive. If they hit their ace they would bet, if they got called they would check it down. They would call raises with a draw, push on the river if they had the nuts, and fold just about anything else. So easy to read it was almost unbelievable.

Then there were the younger players. Or cash cows as I liked to call them. Not quite as easy to read, due to a fair amount of, nonsensical, randomness, but making huge, huge errors on just about every hand they were in. This one example is a perfect illustration:

There is a raise UTG from YG1 (young guy 1) to $15 (because it shows you are a real 'playa' if you bet big, right?), the bet is called by YG2 from mid position. I am in the cutoff with AJ suited, and I noticed that the button is ready to fold his cards, the SB has wandered off for a smoke, only leaving the BB unknown. I think about raising, briefly, but could well be dominated, so I call to see what the flop will bring. BB folds.

Which obliges and comes J 4 8, two spades, giving me a nice nut flush draw.

YG1 now bets $50 into the $50 pot, leaving, for some strange reason, only $35 or so in his stack. YG2 then proudly announces 'I put you all in', seeming to forget I am still in the hand (and have him well covered). The dealer has a bit of trouble deciding if that should be a raise or not, then settles on asking for YG2 to make a min raise to $100.

I am not at all happy about this. I like my hand, but that action, says two pair or trips to me, or would say that in normal circumstances against reasonable players. But top/top and a nut draw, what else can I do but call?

The turn is a blank. YG2 checks. Hmm. I am ahead?

The river is another blank-ish card, six of diamonds I think. Could make an unlikely straight I guess, but no one seems fussed to see it.

Now YG2 bets. There is $335 in the pot, YG2 has about $150 left. If he pushed all in, I would really have something to think about. So he bets $50. A value bet? Really? I don't think so, and even if it was, I am getting 7 1/2 to 1 and the pot is just too big.

I make, sort of, a crying call. I am not 100% confident, because of the strange way the hand has played out so far.

YG1 just mucks his hand before seeing anyone else's. I show my hand first, politely not wanting to slow roll anyone. YG2 shows K J. So there you go.

A little later I get an SMS to say my car is ready, and I cash out for over $900.

Lucky, right?

I went back a week later, very similar, cashed out for $600, after 2 hours 'work'.

This week though, my luck changed, and the best I could manage for a 2 hour session was a paltry $550.

I must say, I am starting to warm to the Burswood poker room.

Went to Burswood the other night with my oldest child, now 18, to play some poker. I didn't remember that the lowest stakes game Burswood spreads is $2/3, and so, even with the extra $50 his mother gave him, Primus (nicknames for my three kids are Primus, Secundus and Spare) was buying in short with $100. My advice to him was therefore to 'play tight' and be prepared to shove with a monster pre-flop.

To cut a long story short, after some early advances, the night didn't go well for either of us. Primus was up to $180 but then lost 2/3 of his stack with 10 10 to K K, and the rest with AK on a flop of A K 9 to trip 9's. I had a flopped nut flush cracked by 10 6, who flopped a pair of sixes, made two pair with a 10 on the turn to enable me to get all my money in, and a six on the river. Talk about a cold deck.

Anyway, moaning about that isn't the point of this post, rather, the next day I was talking about the session with Primus's mother, who was telling me that 'he should have just bought in for $50, and that way if he went all in, he would still have some money left and could buy in again'.

I tried to explain how, buying in that short could work, but was not generally a good idea because any pre-flop bet was likely to be $15, and a three bet would mean all-in, and even to get to that point, the blinds might eat significantly into the stack first. My example was to say you have a hand like AK, in position, with a raise in front to $15. To re-raise that hand would mean all-in, but lets say we just call, nothing hits on the flop, and the pre-flop bettor then makes a pot size bet of $30 - you have to let it go in most cases. Next hand we are in is A Q suited, this time in mid position, we make it $15 and get called by the button and the BB. Again the flop is nothing, the button bets out $50, and again we have to let it go. So now we are down to only $20, get rubbish through the blinds and suddenly have only $15 left.

I did a bad job of explaining it, because I don't think I managed to change her mind - or maybe I should have picked a better time than trying to explain it while she was hanging out the washing. In any event, I have been thinking for a while about bankroll management in general, not just for poker, but for any form of casino gambling. I read a while ago that the average Las Vegas casino 'take' for every dollar passed across the tables was 22%. When you consider that the house edge on even the gimmickiest table games is seldom more than 5%, and as low as 1.5 or 2% on blackjack and craps, where does the extra casino profit come from?

Sure, mug punters, alcohol and other Las Vegas distractions will all take their toll, but very few people walk into the casino for the express purpose of throwing their money away (at least intentionally). My theory is that the casino makes most of its money through people sitting down at a table 'short' for the basic bet they are placing.

Just about every book you read about any form of gambling (or poker) tells you that bankroll management is vital, and you need at least 50-100 bets in front of you, and 500 in your bankroll. But no book I have read so far seems to give other than a cursory explanation as to why that is. So I thought I would have a go at giving one.

First, I find it helps to imagine if your 'luck' is represented by a long string of random numbers that stretches through your life. There is a number from the moment you are conceived, and every microsecond after, until you die, and every one is completely random. Then, every time you partake in something that involves chance, you use the number from that particular instant in your life. Say you are crossing the road and are distracted and don't look both ways - there is some chance you will be knocked down by a car, let's say that chance is 3%. The 'number' on your random number line at that point in your life is 3.3426% - very close, but more than the 3% or less that would mean you were hit. So the car swerves, you step back, and live another day.

So too, imagine you are sitting at a blackjack table, you are playing perfect basic strategy, and the house edge is 2%. Each hand that is dealt 'taps into' your random number line, and if the number is 48 or above the house wins, and less than 48 you win.

It doesn't matter what the game is, roulette, craps, poker, the numbers are random, and you have absolutely no way of changing them or knowing what they will be in advance. Just like in poker where you have trapped your opponent with the nut flush and he has to hit runner-runner to make a full house. Sometimes the number is just going to more than 97% and you will lose.

Enough of my bad beats, back to the blackjack table....

Like a not un-typical casual casino patron, I sit down at the table and place my $100 in front of me to exchange for 20 red chips. Being fortunate to find a $10 min bet table, I make my first wager, and what to you know, I win, and now have $110. So too for the next four hands, plus one blackjack, I now have $165. This game is easy. But then the next ten hands lose, and with a couple of splits and double ups, I am down to just $30. Oh well, $30 isn't much good to anyone, so I keep playing, who knows, I may get lucky. And I do, for the next two hands. But then the five after that all lose, and I am out. In about 20 minutes, the casino has made $100.

But wait a minute, I was playing close to perfect basic strategy. I placed 23 bets, or $230 on the table, I knew my EV would be negative, but shouldn't it only be $230 x -2% = -$4.60? Where did the $100 loss come from?

Let's look at the random number line for that session (I take the sequence from this site, that generates true random numbers). Every number below 48 I win, every number 48 and above, the casino wins:

...95 66 56 22 62 23 42 14 81 84 33 10 02 21 17 38 28 73 53 94 80 48 97 99 62 84 68 16 14 62 84 74 91 96 24 64 26 18 10 97 65 94 76 74 11 81 89 76 18 43 58 28 41 02 63 74 98 45 50 49 34 60 02 81 60 03 04 43 53 96 14 36 85 38 37....

The bold numbers are my winning hands, the italics are the casino's, the first bold number is the point in time when I sit down, the last italic when I bust out and leave.

You can see that if I had one more bet, I would have won the next hand, then lost, then won three and lost the next five, and so on. But I didn't, I only had the $100 I started with, and when that was gone, that was it.

What happened was, I sat down with ten bets and that was not enough, even with some wins, to overcome a short term variance swing of several losses.

This is the FUNDAMENTAL KEY to bankroll management. You MUST have enough bets to overcome short term variance, and 'ride through' the inevitable downswings. Without that, your EV will always be far, far worse, by orders or magnitude, as per the above example.

There is one more thing though. Just like the string of random numbers goes on and on, there is nothing to stop me going back to the casino another day and hitting a sequence where I win eight out of the ten bets I make. That is only slightly less likely than a sequence where the casino wins, and a completely valid subset of the lifetime number string.

So here I am, having a great time, $200 in front of me from my $100 buy in. I'm on a roll, the night is young, the attractive cocktail waitress is on her way back with my complimentary beverage. I'm ahead for the night, and back to even in total. Time to pick up and leave - yeah right. As if that is going to happen.

50 hands later, up down, up down, what do you know, its all gone again. Hmmm. $200 down where EV says I should be only about $20.

Still, you will notice one thing; the difference between my EV and actual loss from the first to the second session is slightly less. In the first session it was $95.40, or about 95% worse than expected. After the second session, it was $183.40 or about 91% worse - effectively 4% closer to the expected value of -2%. (Does nothing to help with the $200 shortfall for this months rent though.)

Which, hopefully, illustrates the point that a bankroll of $200 is better than a bankroll of $100 for a bet unit of $10. Therefore a bankroll of $300 would be better again, as would $500 or $1000. Eventually, with a large enough bankroll, the actual win/loss is going to match the EV for the way I play. How large a bankroll would I need? Infinite is the mathematical answer. But only the casino has infinite money. The player is always going to be limited by some factor, namely, not being Kerry Packer or Bill Gates (and consequently, the casino is always going to be getting better than EV on every bet). Never the less, with a sufficient bank roll, I can approach the true EV, and bigger is always going to be better.

Which still leaves the question of, for a given bet size, what is a reasonable bankroll. Using the very, very, rough example above, of improving 4% for every $100, and, roughly again, running that down to the EV of 2%, we end up with the amount of ((96/4) -1) x $100 = $2,300. Say $2,500 to be safe, should let your win/loss come close to the real EV with the 'given' of a 2% house edge.

Have I answered the question of how the casino makes more than 20% on each dollar bet? Simply, they rely on people playing with inadequate bankrolls, who, when they win, will stay at the table until variance causes them to lose all the money they are prepared to bet. The casino has the cash behind it to ride out any swing in the punters favour, the punter however can only survive to the limit of their bankroll, and is less likely to leave when they are ahead.

As far as setting a bankroll of whatever game/stakes you want to play at, I think that would be easy enough to do by getting a large enough sample of random numbers, knowing your EV, and than running a spreadsheet where every number above your EV is a win, every one below is a loss. Then run an average of the win/loss column, and when that number looks close enough to your EV for your liking, the number of rows equals the number of bets you need in your bankroll. (But don't be a ninny and only do it for 100 or less values, do it for at least 1,000, and then, several times).

I have not played in all the casinos in Australia, yet. But here are my thoughts and opinion on Adelaide (Sky City), Melbourne (Crown), Perth (Burswood) and Sydney (Star City). My 'star' ratings, scored out of 5 are:

Variety of games spread (NLHE, PLO, etc):

Burswood.......1
Crown............4.5
Sky City.........3
Star City........2

Comments: In fairness, Burswood and Sky City are much smaller poker rooms, due to those cities smaller population base. Sky City makes the most 'creative' use of what they have. Star City on the other hand just doesn't try at all. They sometimes spread a PLO game on one table out of. what is it, 25? - big deal.

Time charges and rake for low stakes games:

Burswood.......1
Crown............4
Sky City.........4
Star City........1

Comments: No one begrudges the casino's making money from poker - we all understand they are a business and have to pay wages, return a profit to their shareholders, and all that security and those tables don't come cheap. How come two casino's can seem completely fair, while the feeling you get at the other two is that you are just being gouged?

Blinds and buy-in structure for low stakes games:

Burswood.......1
Crown............3
Sky City.........3
Star City........2

Comments: No one excels here. Maybe there is some gaming legislation that says that a casino can't accept more than 50 big blinds as a buy in or something. I don't know. It seems to put the casual player at a disadvantage, because you will often be joining a table where two or more people who have been playing a while have over 200 big blinds in front of them, and with your 40 big blind buy in, good players are going to make you play for your whole stack on any hand you want to go with.

All the casino's except Burswood spread $1/2 game. Burswood has the worst structure with $2/3, then a ridiculous $5/5.

Table Service:

Burswood.......1
Crown............2
Sky City.........5
Star City........3

Comments: This is the only area where Star City beats Crown. I don't know why Crown is so reluctant to serve their patrons drinks. Star City has gotten a lot better in the last year. But the stand out is Sky City with an excellent ordering system and prompt service.

Dealers and floor staff

Burswood.......3
Crown............4
Sky City.........4.5
Star City........2

Comments: For the most part, Star City dealers are ok, but I have had hand rates as low as 10 per hour at both Star City and Burswood. The floor staff at Star City could spend a little less time socializing with each other too I think, and I really don't care to know if a dealer only got 2 hours sleep last night and is 'really hung over'.

Table Assignment and Seating

Burswood.......2
Crown............5
Sky City.........4
Star City........0

Comments: Star City just plain suck. Five tables, two with dealers on them, sit vacant while the wait list for a $1/2 game is over 80. It is by far the worst run room in that respect I have been in. You really get the feeling Star City doen't like its poker player customers very much. Burswood have a similar seating system to Star City, but sill didn't seem to know how to use it last time I was there. Sky City has a basic system - it's only a small room after all, and it works really well - possibly because the staff take some care in their job. Star City, why don't you send your card room manager and some senior staff to Melbourne for a weekend, to see how a proper, professional, poker room is run?

Room ambiance, 'feel' and environment

Burswood.......2
Crown............4.5
Sky City.........5
Star City........1.5

Comments: I liked the Star City area better when it was next to the bar (and not too far from the craps table). Very convenient to pass the time during the regular hour long wait for a table. The new poker room is miles away on a different level to anything interesting. Crown's room is excellent, what more can I say? But I really like the Sky City lay out with that wide, drink accommodating rail, players are separated enough from the main floor, but still feel part of the general casino buzz.

If I could play anywhere, anytime, where I would go:

Burswood.......2
Crown............4
Sky City.........5
Star City........1

Comment: Don't get me wrong, there could be far worse fates than having to play at Crown all the time. But for my money, I just prefer the 'smaller, friendlier' feel of Sky City - the excellent table services probably has a lot to do with that.

Overall Rating:

Burswood.......1.5
Crown............3.8
Sky City.........4.2
Star City........1.7

Comments: Seems about right.

I am going to Las Vegas later this year. If I get time I will try and get to the Venetian and the Belagio poker rooms and play a hand or two there to see how they compare to the Aussie rooms.

... smashed, smashed and win!! - I wish, no, smashed.

In Melbourne at Crown playing the 50c/$1 Poker Pro tables with my wife. Get it all on with AK post the A 7 K rainbow flop. Beaten by A 2 who makes runner, runner flush. Barbara did well though, and won $35 for the session.

On to Sydney and Star City. Call a raise to $8 UTG with pocket sevens. Three callers for a four way flop, which is Q 7 Q two diamonds. Hmm. Well no, here is what I figure; if no one has anything, then it is going to be checked around anyway, if someone has a queen, they will probably check to trap, if someone is on a diamond draw will want to check hoping for a free one. The only possible way someone is going to bet on this flop is of they have a single seven and are trying to find out where they are. Obviously anyone with two sevens is also going to check to trap.

So. If I bet say half pot, no one is going to suspect I have sevens full, and I will get called and paid out by the flush draws and the trip queens. yes? I act first and make it $15 - just lite of half, which looks perfectly like I am a little wary (I hope).

A call comes from the next player, and then an all in raise for an extra $80. Last guy folds. Could the guy have pocket queens? He was the initial raiser. If he has he has, but I recon it is much more likely to be A Q. The thought crosses my mind he could have exactly Q 7, but he is a tight-ish player and I don't think he would have raised from middle position with that holding.

Whatever the case, I have him covered by only $15 and if the other guy is going to call, that much isn't going to make any difference. In goes all my chips too. Piggy in the middle calls.

I flip my cards and enjoy the sickish looking expression on both faces. Middle guy just folds and comments he is drawing dead - flush draw I guess. All-in guy slow rolls me and doesn't show. Turn is a jack and the river is a blank (but would have made a diamond flush). Slow roller f-wit turns over Q J. Nice hand sir, you got it all in with the worst hand and hit your three outer. Well done.

Fortunately Barbara cashed out for $250 from her $100 buy in and covered my loss.

Next night at Star City, I am doing pretty well, up to $520 from my $100 buy in. On the button I call a raise to $12 UTG and two other calls with pocket eights. The flop comes hence A Q 8, two spades. I make it $40, just over pot. The initial pre-flop bettor, who was in 2nd position, now check raises all in for an extra $290. The other two players fold to me.

I consider.

I have only see this guy showdown with very good hand in the five or six hands I have seen him play to the river. I consider him a tight, if average, player. The huge overbet has me worried though. It could be a complete bluff but it seems very inlikely - he has not been playing that way and looks like a solid, middle age type. He is not giving of any tells that would lead me to think it was a bluff and if anything, looks quite confident. He could have aces, though I don't think so. But queens, now that seems very possible. It has to be either queens or ace queen. However, if A Q, why would be make such a big over bet? A bet like that from a player like that against a player like I think he would see me as, is, in my opinion, meant to look like a bluff on the hope of getting paid out if I have two pair.

I flash my cards to the players nearest me as I fold and say 'I think you have queens'.

The guys next to me express incredulity. 'How could you fold a set?', 'You have to call for value' I am told. I ask my opponent what he had, and first he says he can't remember, but after hearing confirmation of my hand, he then says he had A Q.

Well, if he did, it was a bad laydown for me. But over all, I don't think it was that bad. Bottom trips against possible AA, QQ or AQ. One hand I can beat, two I am almost dead to. I figure I was being asked to risk $280 on a 1:2 chance to win $80. My only real regret is showing what I folded.

A couple of orbits later I limp from middle position with K J. The flop comes J J 7. There are two checks, and I bet $15, just over the pot of $12. Fold, fold and an elderly gentlemen on the button calls. The other two who checked than fold.

The turn is a blank, a four I think. I bet $30 into the $42 pot and get called. I am not liking this all that much. Old tight players don't call with nothing.

The river is an ace. Worst card possible. I check. The old one now goes all in for his last $60. There is only one hand he can have. I must save myself $60 here and fold. Which of course I don't. Undoubtedly I was tilting from my previous laydown of trips and I call. It was no consolation at all that I was completely right about his hand.

I end that session up $240, but it still feels like a big loss to me. I donk of the profit at craps to choppy dice and a shooter who must have thrown 12 at least nine times.

I give poker a break for the next couple of nights until Thursday. I am a bit tired from a long week, but feel ok.

First buy in goes on about ten minutes when AK with an ace on the flop get beaten by ace rag making two pair on the turn. I am tilty for sure, and probably too tired as well - must be to have lost a buy in on a single pair. But I want to keep playing so i rebuy, just as a $1/2 PLO table open up.

I think my Omaha game isn't too bad, but I am wrong. I am totally out played and lose my $200 buy in in about an hour. Now I am done for the night.

Saturday, well rested, my flight out isn't until five. Check out at 11am. What to do with the six hours to spare?

Pocket kings on a board of 7 9 3, two diamonds one heart. Turn is a blank of hearts, I am sure my opponent hasn't improved. The pot is $80 and I have $60 left. In it goes. Opponent has 2 6 of hearts and hits a heart on the river.

Rebuy and some time later pocket kings again in late position. Two limpers so I pop it up to $15. BB calls, the rest fold. Flop is blank ace blank. I mean, bloody hell. BB is, yet another, old, tight player. He checks, I bet $15, he calls. He has an ace, no question. River is another blank. I bet $30, thinking; he will have an ace with a high kicker, my only chance to win is the represent ace rag and with lots of rags, made two pair. But he is oblivious to my clever strategy and calls. I give up on the river and check it down. He shows A 10. I have $25 left.

Some other hand doesn't hold up and I am out a few rounds later.

What a disaster. Bad play, tilting, and bad luck have made a huge dent in my bankroll.

I had a very pleasant Sunday afternoon at Star City last week. I think a lot had to do with my seat position; two tight passive players on my left, three loose, aggressive players to my right. But more on that later.

The new poker room at Star City is worth a mention first. I think it has the same number of tables as there were when it was on the main casino floor, but they are in two long rows. It looks like they run down what must have been a wide corridor that has now been refurbished to make one long room - perhaps poker hall would be a better description that poker room.

Anyway, that is no problem. The area is on the 2nd floor of the casino, right away from the hussle and bussle of the slots and table games. Also from everything else too. It is a fair walk to the closest bar or anywhere to grab a quick bite. And, saddest of all, a long way from the craps table. Apart from that, nothing really has changed. The registration desk people are still as indifferent-verging-on-rude as usual and the dealers still as averagely competent as always.

I don't know what it is with casino poker in Australia that sets the maximum buy in at not more than 50 big blinds. Maybe it is something in the gaming act, or maybe the casinos figure they can get more action and hence more rake with shorter stacks. I don't know what it is, but I am sure if a game were to be spread with say 100 or even 150/200 BB buy ins, it would immediately become the most popular, whatever the stakes.

Star City could have used the opening of the new room to re-vamp and restructure their poker product, say like spreading PLO, better rake/time charge structures, or even just brief their staff not to treat poker players like the pariah customers of the casino. But no, same old, same old. So what are you gonna do? Don't worry about it, buy in, sit down, and play poker.

So I did.

A nice elderly lady to my immediate left was a school teacher, and now a grandmother apparently. In the seat next to her was a bloke in his late sixties of the type commonly seen permanently positioned in front of a poker machine at the local RSL, overflowing ashtray on one side, somehow always half full midi on the other. One on from him was a well groomed girl, maybe early to mid 20's, and next to her an older lady, her mother as it turned out. The rest of the table were 20-something guys, who played a lot of poker on-line in the $5/10 and $10/20 range. So the table talk went.

Now I have to say, I hear that sort of thing a lot. Always at low stakes games, where the players make the most outrageous claims about the on-line poker stakes they play at. It puzzles me, because I am not sure what they are actually trying to achieve with that. If it is to intimidate the other players into thinking they are better than they are, then it just plain does not work. If you are a winning player at 5/10 or 10/20 on line, then a $1/2 live game (with the huge casino rake and time charge) is going to be the most boring, and unprofitable thing you could do with your time. Star City spreads a $25/50 game, so wouldn't that be the one they would choose? The story just doesn't add up.

It's good for me though. Because it is pretty easy to get an early read on such players. The almost always fall into the overly aggressive, too tricky for their own good category. Frequently they leak tells, so can be safely called down with middle pair, and because they over-value their own reads, just as often they can be pushed of top pair or even trips when possible draws hit on the board. At the same time, they do have enough ability to not make donkey plays (probably because they fear being labeled one more than losing money), so rarely will they deliver a bad beat. When I think about it, they really are the most profitable players. I smile and nod at their stories, and try and encourage them to keep re-buying.

The game itself was nothing spectacular. I went down to about $60 before I hit a few hands and doubled up. Retired school teacher, old codger and older lady swapped some pleasant banter. The attractive girl got all her money in with a flopped set of 5's, only to loose when pocket nines from one of the internet young guns made trips on the river. She lost her second stack a few hands later in a similar way (flopped nut straight losing to runner runner full house). So she left early. Pity, her low cut blouse made the view a little nicer.

There action was mostly multiple limps to the flop. I would put in a raise with a top hand, and usually see three or four calls. I kept the raises to three BB, plus the limps, or 4 BB from early position. It made the pot big enough to guarantee action if I hit, but small enough to get away from if nothing hit. I made two bluffs with air during the session, to two similar self proclaimed internet players. Folding their pot size bet into a $20 pot post flop to my $60 raise and check raise respectively. One had paired his weak ace and was sure I had a better kicker (I had 9 10 suited, but had paired the 9), the other was on a flush draw with Q high (my 5 6 unsuited from the BB hit nothing, but his bet was clearly a button bet to try to take the pot). I don't know why they felt they had to show me. I guess they were such 'great laydowns' that I would better respect their play in future. My cards went quietly face down into the muck and I nodded agreement with whatever hand they told me I must have had.

Here's the thing though. I didn't play a lot of hands, and every one I did that went to showdown I was able to turn over a premium hand. Not always the winner, but always something like AK suited, AQ suited, JJ, or, in a limped pot, some worse hand that had made a monster on the flop. So, for the three hours I was there, with mostly the same players, no one saw me play anything but a super premium hand.

You would think then, that I would find myself not getting paid out much after a while, wouldn't you? But no. Amazingly, I would almost always get a caller to the river (if I wanted to and didn't price the pot too high). And even more amazingly, they would usually show a single pair with a weak kicker, middle pair or some other junk hand.

End result - I cashed out for $380. Retired school teacher who left at the same time I did cashed out for over $400, and old codger was still at the table with about $300 in front of him. So much for middle/high stakes internet players, huh.

.. is my new name for Star City. After cashing out with over $700 on the $1/2 NLHE game on Monday night, I was set for the rest of the week to just idle along, not push my luck, and show a net gain for the week of $1,000.

That seemed like a reasonable expectation at the time. Star City is the casino I play the most. I have a pretty good handle on both low stakes NLHE games there ($1/2 and $5/5), and out of the last 50 sessions I have at least doubled my buy in 33 times, make between 50% and 100% profit nine times, broke even twice and been broke six times. (I count each buy in or re-buy as a 'session).

So, Wednesday night I am sitting in a soft-ish (as usual) $1/2 game. Late position with pocket kings with one raise already, I bump it up to $35 and get two callers. I am pretty sure I am facing AK and possible another big pair (queens down to tens, but not aces). The flop comes 10 K 3 rainbow. Nice one.

First guy to act checks. Next guy bets $50. I have $80 and I don't see any point calling, so I go all in. The checker then check raises all in as well for $110, which puts the initial bettor all in as for about $80. I show my cowboys, 1st player shows AK, and the second player A 10.

The turn is a queen. And what else could the river be but a jack.

Rebuy.

From the BB I call a raise to $15 with 88. We are heads up with $38 in the pot. The flop obliges me with 8 4 9, two clubs. I make a pot sized bet of $40 and get called. The turn is a 2 of diamonds, making a diamond flush draw now possible. I can't see how I am not ahead here, but fear the flush draws. The pot is now $118, I have $65 left - enough to make it incorrect to chase I figure, and in it goes.

The river is 10 spades. Ha, the flush draw missed. But the gutshot straight draw hit as my opponent turns over Q J offsuit.

My heart really isn't in a 3rd buy in, so I call it a night.

Friday night. A huge waitlist for the $1/2 game, so I list for the $5/5 tables as well. The $5/5 at Star City is the worst structure of any casino cash game I have seen. The max buy in is $200, but the SB of $5 makes it the equivalent, I figure, of about only 30 big blinds.

Anyway there is lots of action and the players are no better than the $1/2 game - if anything, perhaps a little worse, or at least if nothing else, looser.

In the first hour I build up to a healthy $420 stack. An Asian gentlemen meanwhile has amassed a huge stack of at least $1,500, through, as far as I can see, dumb luck. He is the classic calling station, and with any ace, any picture card or any connectors, has been calling all pre flop bets and post flop bets and raises. And always managing to hit somewhere along the line, scooping pot after pot.

My first heads up against him I have pocket aces and raise a five way limped pot to $50. Al fold, EACS (elderly Asian calling station) calls. The flop looks non-threatening, but two hearts. I make a 2/3 pot sized bet, $100, and get called. Both the turn and the river look like nothing, but I have no idea where I actually am - other than knowing any bet from here on will get called no matter. I check both streets, as does EACS. I show aces, the river had paired a 4 from the flop. EACS shows A 4.

A big dent in my stack, but not fatal. Until...

Pocket 10's under the gun. Raise to $25 (standard for the table). Six callers. All undercards on the flop. I can't see how I can not bet this, even so massively multiway. My read on the table is no one was happy with the flop. I shove all-in $140 into the $150 pot. All fold except EACS who calls. I show tens, he shows Q 8 with no pair. The board 3 flushes on the turn, and four flushes on the river, given EACS the pot with his eight high flush.

Rebuy. Though I suspect I may be a little tilty at this point.

Calm, collected, patient. I think to myself. Bide your time, wait for the hands to come, and they will come. Just make sure you get your money in with the best of it and you will be ok.

I take my own advice. I don't tilt. I get a few good hands, make some plays, fold when opponents make better hands and otherwise do all the right things. No cards and a cold deck drain my chips down to $120 when I get QQ on the button. As usual there are a number of limpers, 4 in fact, to me. I raise to $60, making the pot $90. Fold, fold, fold, call (from EACS), fold, fold.

Flop is K, A, J all spades. I have the queen of spades. EACS checks, and I of course push all in. AECS has J 7 diamonds. The turn is a blank, the river is a jack.

I stand, have a stretch, for a few seconds watch AECS adding the pot to his already massive chip pile, and politely tell the dealer I wont be rebuying.

Ah well, there is always next time.

I decided to forgo the discounted city hotels on Wotif.com for this months trip to Sydney. And instead pay the $100 or so extra per night for a room at Star City. My rational (perhaps forlorn hope) being that I could offset the extra cost with a few nights of poker winnings from the low stakes NLHE tables.

Well, the first pleasant surprise was that my basic room had been upgraded to a higher floor, much better view, executive suite. Very nice, as I looked out at panoramic views of the City skyline and SH Bridge.

I might have mentioned before the new sports bar, bistro and sports arena in the casino. If not, let me tell you, they really have done a top job on it. The bistro is particular is fantastic value, the food is great, at around $12-15 for a tasty, filling, and satisfying meal.

Apparently Star City are building a brand new poker room on the mezzanine level. It looks like that will be ready sometime later in October. Not ready now though, but interesting to see what that will be like on my next visit.

So.

Usual 6am start in Perth (curse non-national daylight savings). 11:15 flight to Sydney. Arrived in my room at 7pm. A quick shower and then... hmm, Top Gear is on. After Top Gear, a bowl of nachos and a beer for dinner and then.. Monday night, pretty quiet, so only a few minutes wait for a table.

Pocket queens on the second hand.

You know, I have to say, as nice as it is to get those ladies, I much prefer not having to make any betting decisions for an orbit or so. I have no read on the table, and it is easy to be tagged as a mug punter and big pairs cracked for an early re-buy.

Sure enough, my $15 raise to two limpers from mid position is called by three people and we go four handed to the flop. 8, 3, K. Two clubs. Great. Who wouldn't have a king here. Checked to me, with two people to act behind and a $60 pot.

I have hardly an feel for the table at all, but is seems nit-ish to me. I figure a $25 bet will be as effective as anything more is no one has a king, and putting more in would just cost me if someone does have a king.

'Bet, 25' I announce. It does the trick. I take the pot and am off to a good start.

I take down one or two modest pots over the next hour. Lose a little on multiway limped pots when draws don't work out, and my chip stack fluctuates between $120 and $160.

Then comes a hand I have been waiting for. I raise pocket 10's UTG to $10. I am not crazy about the 4 callers, and prepared to check-fold if (when) overcards hit to betting on the flop. Sure enough, there is a jack and an ace on the flop. And also a nice looking 10.

No point slow playing this draw-ing board. My previous observations of opponents in this hand tell me that even a pot size bet will not be enough to push out two particular players if they are drawing (they will call any bet on a draw). The other two, I don't know. I am first to act, and I think at least two players have connected well with the flop, but I am certainly ahead here. My strategy therefore is to try to get as much money into the pot, and hope no draw makes it. I figure $35 will do that.

One fold and three calls. Nice pot builder.

Turn is an off-suit 2. No danger there, but one guy looks more interested. Guess he now has two pair with his ace rag.

It's a huge pot and I don't have enough chips to kill the drawing hands. Never mind though, it's value town or bust now. Mr Two-pair is first to act after me, and he is certainly going to bet, but is one of the better players at the table and may be able to lay down if I show strength again on this street. I elect to check.

Two-pair announces all-in for $86. Fine by me. One call, which is also all-in for just $25, one fold and I call. The river is another blank. So pot to me. What a nice game this is.

In high spirits I donk off about $50 over the next hour with some speculative hands. I am still sitting on $240 though, exceeding my trip objective to 'double up every night I play'. It's 11pm, I am tired, and I know I am not making good decisions, but then rationalize that the table isn't that tough (which is further evidence of degraded reasoning).

Never the less, it seems easier to sit here for the time being that get up and cash out. Maybe I will leave when the blinds come around again. But here they are now, and I have paid the big blind, so I am in for another orbit at least.

Pocket threes in the small blind. Worth seeing the flop for another $5 in a single raised, six way, pot.

Which then comes 3c, As, Jc. Wow, now there is danger. No one has pocket aces for sure. Also very unlikely anyone has pocket jacks, unless it was the first raiser (and I wasn't paying enough attention to see who that was). Which means I am very likely best hand here in this $36 pot.

What to bet, what to bet? Must push out draws. I bet $40. Call, call, call, call, call. Bloody hell.

The turn comes ten clubs. Damn and bugger. How many draws does that complete? I can't be good here, but how can I let it go? Fatigued, at the end of a long day, my fuzzy logic is something like 'I have outs to make a boat, $80 bet with just two callers will give me the right odds'.

Was that right? Assuming no one had paired any of the board cards, and ruling out a straight flush, I had, what? Ten outs, which is a bit over 20%. $80 into what I am hoping will be a $400+ pot is better than 5 to 1. Well, there you go, I was about right. As long as everyone did what I wanted.

I bet 80. Instead of two I get four callers, one of which is all-in for just $30 more. Just what are these guys on??? Do they ALL have flushes? Has someone else made trips and I am dead in the water? It doesn't look like anyone liked that bet/call, but can I really tell at the moment?

The river is either a very nice card for me, or a very bad card. The ace of clubs. There is now four to a club flush on the board. Great to get whatever money is left from anyone still drawing at that point, especially someone with the king who was worried about someone having the nut ace flush. Very, very bad though for me if someone had two pair with an ace.

I check and let whatever will happen happen. The next person to act goes all in for $87. One fold and one call. I should have tried to figure this out, and got the rest of the calling players chips as well. But for some reason, tiredness probably, I didn't, and just called. Pair of jacks from the last player to go all in (great play mate, please come again tomorrow), low flush to the first player who went all in. Queen high flush from the player who called.

Humongous pot to me.

I let the blinds come around one more time, then wander off to find a chip tray and call it a night.

Took the worst loss ever at a short handed home game on Friday night. With the usual blinds of 10c/20c, I ran $50 down to $15 and topped up another $40.

I won some reasonable, but smallish, pots with the nut flush on one hand, semi bluffs on a couple of others, and large bets on the river with mid/top pair - which were essentially bluffs to possibly 2 pair or trips on an otherwise draw heavy board.

So I wasn't too upset with the way I played in general - it was my usual style, with a slightly extended range because of the 6/5 handed format we played most of the night. One thing though, I either made some very good laydowns, or was very successfully bluffed, though it is most likely bother of those on several different hands. Which is ok. I think winning play requires a laydown to a well executed bluff, just as it sometimes required a lookup.

I won one $15 pot calling down with pocket eights as a king, ace and then 4 flush board came on the river. I lost a similar size pot with 10 J, pairing the jack on the flop for top pair, betting on two streets and ultimately loosing to a pocket pair that flopped trips fives.

But what killed me was the large number of very good starting hands I was dealt, but with nothing hitting, no draws succeeding, and on-going suck-outs.

I had AK and AQ/AJ suited about six times. Hands like 5 6 suited, 9 10, J Q. All positive VE hands. All requiring a pre flop raise from position.

It is hardly unusual to get 3-4 callers for a $1.25 raise (a standard raise in this game is either 75c or $1.25). Then what happened time and time again was one of three things:

1. a piece of the flop, like top pair, flush draw or straight draw.

2. hit nothing, check to me.

3. hit middle or bottom pair, but lay down to a bet an a raise in front of me.

Invariably, a pot size raise with top pair would be called by 2 or 3 players. And I would find myself facing a bet, and often a raise on the turn with no improvement to my hand.

A C bet when checked to me would either get called to at least two people, or say I bet $5 into a $8 pot, find myself facing a check raise to $15.

And what can you do with bottom pair to a bet and a raise? Call the $10, maybe then face all in from the first bettor, or at best face a pot raised to $25 on the turn.

Often I would get the odds to call with a draw, or I would semi-bluff the draw and raise. Great - no draw hits and I now have face an all-in on the turn or river.

It all adds up to an average loss rate of about 75c a hand. And sure enough, after about 100 hands, at 1am in the morning, I find myself with $26 left, and pocket 10's in the small blind. The pot is double straddled, and we are 5 handed. The button raises to $2.50. With $4 in the pot, I raise it up to $12 - a bit tilty, but still.

It folds to the button who calls.

The flop comes 5 9 10 rainbow. Bingo! I think for a minute, then push my remaining $24 into the ~$24 pot.

Call. J Q.

The turn is an 8 and the board doesn't pair on the river. For some reason I don't feel like another rebuy - which would need to be $100 to match the other stacks at the able. So it is all over red rover.

Worst loss ever at that game.

Is the regular home game I go to here in Perth. Run most Tuesday nights with a cast of regulars and the occasional newby, it is, without doubt, the toughest game I know. Which is great - because if you can win, or just hold your own at the home game, there is no question you will be a winning player at (at least) low stakes Casino games.

So what mega stakes do we play? 10/20 blinds. No, not $10/$20 - rather 10cent/20cent.

Wow (I hear you say), really hard core man.

Sure, it is hardly Big Game at the Belagio stuff, never the less, it is not uncommon to see a $100 or higher pot. Most hands start out with a straddle, sometimes a double straddle, occasionally a triple, and once, eight handed, straddled all the way to the button for a $19.50 starting pot.

But is it not the stakes at all that matter. The players are tough. Very tough, in the cunning, loose, tricky, value betting, any two cards, fearless bluffing type style of Negreanu, Ivy, Dwan, Hansen, Antonius or any other scary opponent you might like to not face.

I have seen a $60 pot (bet and called on every street) raised to $120 on the river and called ($180 pot), the caller showed a 10 high, beating the raisers 9 high.

'You are sick man, I knew you were weak, how could you call that!'

'I knew you were bluffing and 10 is better than half the cards you could have done it with, so I had the right odds'

Is something how the post hand dialog went.

There is no question the regular game has improved my own game substantially. And I note that quite a few of the regulars, who, a year ago, who as novices to poker started out as 'producers', now hold their own pretty well. I for one would not like to see that type of player at my table in a Casino.

Our buy-ins started at 100BB a year ago, but now some buy in for $20, but most for $50. 2-3 reloads a night is not uncommon either.

Apart from an occasional new person, the regular group divides itself into roughly three types of players:

- maniac aggressive: in most pots, raising at least 50% of the time. Usually checking the flop no matter what, and betting or raising the turn. These guys have the biggest wins, and unsurprisingly the most frequent reloads. There will be 2-5 of these at the table on any given night.

- tight aggressive: the category I would put myself in. Bluffing about 10% of the time, hopefully just enough to get paid off with big hands (getting rarer now - will have to get caught bluffing more in future). There are 2-4 in this group usually.

- dead money: either new people or non regulars, or the one or two regulars who are off their game or just bad players. But, because of the often insane action, these guys can win some big pots and so not become too discouraged (I am not being critical of these players calling them 'dead money', some who started that way are now scary players - we all had to start somewhere, by loosing).

One thing is for sure thought. We are all there to improve our game, by playing has hard and tough as we can. The money, even the crazy 1,000 BB pots, is trivial, and for me at least, respect as a player in the group is far more important - a view I am pretty sure is shared. Not that I particularly feel some need to be respected due to some personality deficiency, rather, I respect the game of the other players enough to know that it equates to winning poker at a table where the stakes really count.

'The Cas' is the local name for Burswood Casio. Apart from the very soft $2/$3 game, it is possibly the worst card room of any casino is Australia (I don't have first hand knowledge of Restpoint or Jupiter's).

The rake is 10% capped at $10 per pot. Not too bad for a low stakes game, and at least there are no time charges. Which is just as well, because the hand rate is s--l--o--w, not more than 12 hands an hour I am sure. The dealers are usually not too bad, but it is not uncommon to get a dealer that seems like they have only just completed their induction. They often make mistakes, or get confused by the action, pot splits etc.

They also run out of $1 chips with monotonous regularity. The dealer then sends a player off to another table to scrounge up spare chips. I mean, really?

And the registration staff are just rude. Like it is some privilege to go there and pay their rake. The table seating system is unsurprisingly pretty hopeless.

But the worst, the by far worst thing, I have ever seen at any casino, is the dealers will cough or sneeze into their hands!, and then completely unselfconsciously just keep dealing and handling the chips - no doubt believing the players should be honoured with the bonus mucus and germs they are now sharing with the table.

But, it is the only casino, and legal card room, in town. And the game is soft. So what are you going to do?

Here is my hand history graph for my last session there.



I think this nicely illustrates 'trading my small mistakes for opponents big mistakes'.

.. you know I've had my share (Bonham, Jones, Page)

Would be more appropriate if it were 'good beats, bad beats', or in my case 'bad beats, bad beats' - because that is all I seem to get lately. I mean, what a bad run I am having - played over 15 tournaments and a number of cash games, and just lost, lost lost.

The thing about such a bad streak though, it does make you look long and hard at the way you are playing. And I have found one or two errors I was making and fixed them (nothing that would cause such a run of losses, but handy to have those holes plugged, never the less).

In the most part, the losses are down to two things; first, bad luck and second, tilting more because of the first.

As far as bad luck goes, it is coming in two forms - top hands that are beaten before the flop, and best hands that are drawn out on.

Here is an example of the first case - in the SB with KK. Really hoping I an going to be able to get some value from the hand, and that the pot gets raised pre-flop. There is one limper and the button puts in a 5 x BB raise. Fantastic, exactly what I was hoping for. Wont get fancy where, will re-raise the obvious blind steal up to 20 x BB and take the pot now. Limper folds, of course. Button thinks and then raises me again. Well, I have been known to defend my blinds, especially against the button who is a maniac lose aggressive player.

I jump it up again, and now half my stack is committed. He has me slightly covered, and I expect he will fold here. But no, he thinks and then announces all in. Bugger, he has a real hand. He can make that play with AK suited, AA, KK, QQ, (and also a complete bluff if he thinks I am playing back at him to counter his normal aggression - though I think it would be hard for him to think that the way this hand has been played) and knows I would do what I just did with AA, KK, AK, QQ or JJ.

I suspect aces. However of the possible hands he could have, only one has me beat, half a chance (KK) of a tie, and three I have beat. With 50/50 pot odds, I see myself as the odds on favorite.

Should have gone with my read. He had aces. The whole evenings work, and profit, passed across the table on that one hand.

And so I have run into that situation what seems like at least a dozen times in the last month. Where the most likely best hand turns out to be a dog.

As for the second case, I must be giving off this aura that attracts opponents to chase me down. Time and again my chips have gone in on the flop or turn with the best hand, only to be outdrawn - top two pair vs mid pair that becomes trips, a flopped nut straight on a rainbow board where my opponent calls a bug bet and then an all on to hit runner runner flush on the river, trips against two pair that make a bigger full house on the river. And on it has gone. While at the same time, nothing I chase has hit.

I know a 60% favorite will often not win, and plenty of time I have put chips in whe 55% or just 52% ahead, and sometimes 80% - I have no illusions I am entitled to win even if my opponent has a one or two outers. But sheesh, at least ONCE out of a dozen times would be nice.

As my wife points out, at least I am getting all the bad luck out of the way for when it might really matter. And, I was reading Annie Dukes book the other day. She mentions that her and Howard Lederer both had a 4 month period where they lost regularly. So it happens, and it is just a matter of perseverance I guess.

... and all the chips roll down to me.

My last poker session at Vegas was preceded by two 'two finger' scotch-on-the-rocks, a bottle of wine with dinner, and then, demonstrating my still sound judgment, an 'espresso martini' (4oz of Vodka, a shot of espresso, a shot of creme de cao and a shot of kaluha).

Buzzzz. My brain was firing on all 19 of its four cylinders.

In my defense, I have to say that it was not my intention to actually play poker after dinner, but the card room was on my path back to my room, and, well, there was a seat free, and, one thing just lead to another I guess.

With the great dexterity bestowed upon me by my consumed beverages, I managed to spill my chips as I assumed my seat. 'Better play tight' I thought 'I might not be at my sharpest at the moment'.

Second hand was A K. I'm in late position, one raiser to $6, one caller. I raise to $25. All fold. Nice one.

Two hands later, Q Q. 2 limps from early position, I raise to $10, not wanting to scare away too much action. One caller from late position, the BB calls and one of the limpers call. A little too much action for my liking for pocket queens, but never mind.

There is an ace on the flop, it's checked to me, and I figure $30 is going to let me know if one of those hit. The BB calls, everyone else folds. Ah well, those queens looked good while it lasted.

The river is some blank, but makes a three flush on the board, and yes, I see now a straight for a 10, 8 holding.

The BB checks, trapping no doubt, but my limbic brain has already decided to bet and before I can stop them, $100 of mine goes into the pot. At which point, the BB with top pair, and no doubt a pretty good kicker, promptly... folds. huh?

My limbic brain had obviously seen something I didn't.

Anyway, I flashed my queens to the player as I mucked them, causing one or two people at the table to say 'Show one show all'.

"Oh come on" I said "Who's the rules lawyer here?"

"We all are" someone else commented

"Ok, turn them over" I said to the dealer, indicating my mucked cards

"No, you have to do that" the dealer told me.

So I did, it wasn't really a problem, but, of course, my conscious brain, just now catching up, wasn't about to let it go at that.

"Oh yes, you don't want these Aussies coming over here and bluffing you out of your money" I said to no one in particular as I turned the cards face up "Better see what cards they were holding, even though you weren't even in the hand"

'Murmer murmer' whet the table

Next hand I played was UTG, 4 7 off looked good, so I lead out with $12. And picked up the blinds.

In the BB next, the button raised to $6 (standard for the table). I make it $18 and get a sheepish fold. I know I had some cards, I probably did look at them at the time, but they were not that memorable so I can't tell you what they were now.

I fold the SB to a legitimate looking raise, and then from the button 3-bet a raise to my right and make it $18 again with A 10. The BB calls, a crusty looking 'old timer' who's mule was probably tied to the hitching rail outside (no joke, this guy looked like a stereotype of a 'Californ-i-a' old west prospector). The initial raiser gets out of the way and folds.

The flop is all low and two clubs, which do nothing for my two hearts. The prospector bets $20 and I call (I have no idea what he has, but all parts of my brain agree, I wont be bluffed).

Turn is something low again. He makes it $40 and I call. The river is a jack, no help to me. Prospector makes another $40 bet. I figure his previously tight play and now call, bet, bet, bet just has to be a bluff and my ace high could be good.

"Ok, I guess I am going to pay you off" I say, calling.

As it turned out, I had made a wheel straight on the turn and won the pot.

Fortunately, a benefit of the alcohol was to buffer the total embarrassment and astoundingly poor manners of both missing my hand and so rudely making a slow roll statement about paying off, so I almost didn't feel anything. To his great credit, the only emotion the prospector showed was a slightly more rigid set to his permanent grimace.

But that was all in the past now, and another two cards were in front of me.

However, the die were cast, there was no going back. The table had me pegged as an audacious, maniac, aggressive player, and I wasn't going to let my countrymen, Jeff Lisandro, Tony G and even Joe Hachem (I fantasized) down.

By forth street again I find myself with ace high, except I am the one betting each street this time. It dawns on my that the most likely holding my opponent has is top trips - the very hand I have been trying to represent. The river brings a blank, but makes a three flush. 'Ah Ha!' I decide, I will now represent a flush. I have the other guy well covered, the pot is about $120 and I announce 'all in', meaning my opponent needs to put in his last $80.

He folds. Well.... I am sort of coming to expect that by now.

So sure am I that he had trips, I make the smart-arse comment "Mate, in Australia we don't usually fold trips to a bluff" and show my ace high. It works, and he turns over his pocket kings, for, indeed, top trips.

A few hands later I am pulling in chips again and make a comment (to the increasing grumblings at the table ranging from 'ass-hole' to 'can't get all the luck, the ass-hole etc) something like "I don't know how you guys play here, but in Australia, we actually try to win money when we play".

Well, that did it. I could feel the enmity from the whole table now. Every hand, whether I raised or limped pre flop, there would be five or six of them right there, trying to out draw me and teach that 'Aussie ass-hole' a lesson.

Six callers pre flop. Six folders to bets on the flop and turn.

It helped a lot that in two hands that went to show down I had trips and then a straight, taking out large chunks of the stacks of two or three brave enough to stay in. The tight passive table, that seem common in Vegas, and so exploitable, had now become a loose passive table with, fortunately, no need to exploit, as they did all the exploiting to themselves for me.

I noticed how in the pots I wasn't in, the guys who won were only tipping $1, even though sometimes the pots were quite large. I made a point of telling the dealer that even though our exchange rate was really bad, hell, if you can afford to come to Vegas, the least you could do was tip the dealers a reasonable amount. Then, every $1 tip another player made, I would tip $2 on top.

More tilt. More chips to me. What a great game. But all good things must come to an end, and by about 1am the effects of the caffeine were wearing off and the alcohol was setting in. The sigh of relief from the table was audible as I loaded my chips into a tray to cash out. Buy in $100, cash out $450. Viva, Las Vegas indeed.

... my kind of town. If you can make it anywhere, you can make it there. (apologies to Cahn and Van Heusen, and Kander and Ebb).

I can well understand why pro poker players end up in Las Vegas. I don't know how the games stack up at higher stakes, but one would have to assume that the tables at any stake level are indicative of any other. And so at low stakes, $1/2, $2/3 and $2/5, I can tell you, the games are as soft and good as I can imagine.

My recent visit - played six sessions, mostly $1/2, over three nights. usually one session after the 'work' day on the way back from the convention I was attending at the Mandalay Bay, then dinner, than another session after that, each once averaging about 2-3 hours.

Apart from the first session where I cleverly managed to get it all in pre flop with pocket Kings against Aces, each one I at least doubled up on my $200-$300 buy in. Total winnings for the trip was $1,200. I mean, that's a win rate of $100 per hour (after the rake and tips). How can it get any better than that?

Now, please don't think that I am implying I am some great player or that I ascended to poker god-hood on my flight across the Pacific. I know and will readily admit that my game has many flaws and leaks. But I do know I an a regular winner in Aus casinos at the $1/2 level, averaging about $25 per hour over the last year.

What I am saying, is just how much better/softer the Vegas games are. If I can make $100 per hour, what could a good player do? (well I know, because I ran into one or two at different times at my table, and their chip stacks where much bigger than mine).

As i said to the players at our regular home game - anyone from this table could make a killing in Vegas.

What makes it so good? I don't know (apologies to Pete Townshend), but here is a list of the a-typical Vegas low stakes player characteristics:

- tight passive
- level 0 thinkers
- scared money (I know, I know, $200, sheesh, but that is what I saw)
- easy to tilt, at which point they become
- loose passive

Maybe it is just because the $1/2 games are so low stakes (but that was all the casino's were spreading), that no one 'good' plays in them. I am sure that the $5/10 games would be much tougher, but then you would expect a whole better calibre of pro to be playing them to match the higher 'tourist' skill level.

So can it really be that at $5/10 it is possible to make upwards of $500 per hour (if the $1/2 experience scales)?

it is certainly food for thought. A good way to fund a very, very, nice holiday if it does and I can improve my game to that level.